Baaeed and the Arc: how Haggas's position and the odds have changed since York

The position on Baaeed's future plans has evolved since York's Ebor festival, with the likelihood of the world's best racehorse lining up in the Arc increasing. Here we revisit what was said since his Juddmonte International win . . .

August 17

"He can't do both, it's too close, and we wanted our finale in the Champion Stakes, that's always been the plan. I never had any desire to run in the Arc and unless Sheikha Hissa [daughter of the late Sheikh Hamdan, founder of owners Shadwell] and Angus Gold [Shadwell's racing manager] decide that we're going to do that and miss Ascot, as far as I'm concerned he'll be going for the Champion Stakes."

William Haggas thought the Champion Stakes was the most likely final target for Baaeed straight after the Juddmonte International, with his price remaining 14-1 for the Arc with William Hill.

August 18

"Everything is possible at the moment, even the Arc. I have to talk to Sheikha Hissa, but we're going to enjoy the moment and don't need to make any decisions yet.

"There are three options. It's either Champion Stakes only, the Irish Champion and then the Champion Stakes, or the Arc de Triomphe.

"If Sheikha Hissa wants him to have two races, the middle option would be the one. If Sheikha Hissa is happy to go the Champion only, then that would be the route. If she would like to go for the Arc, that would be the one and the rest would not be in the equation.”

Baaeed: an easy winner of the Juddmonte International at YorkCredit: Edward Whitaker

Three possible routes to retirement for Baaeed were outlined by Haggas to the Racing Post the following day, with the Arc one of three options, the others being the Champion Stakes or the Irish Champion followed by the Champion Stakes. With the Arc under consideration, William Hill cut Baaeed's price to 10-1 (from 14) then later in the day went 6-1.

August 28

“We have come to the conclusion that he will have one more race this season.

"That will not sadly be in the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes but will be either in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe or the Qipco Champion Stakes.

"A decision will be made nearer the time. He’s not in the Arc so would need to be supplemented but we are not keen to run him on bad ground in Paris, so if the ground is nice there is a strong chance he’ll run there. Otherwise he’ll wait for the Champion Stakes and run there."

The Irish Champion was ruled out by Haggas on Sunday and the Arc became considerably more likely, with the Newmarket trainer saying there "is a strong chance" of heading to Longchamp if conditions are in his favour. Baaeed is now 7-4 favourite for the race with William Hill.

Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe (Longchamp, October 2)

Paddy Power: 4-6 Baaeed (non-runner money back), 6 Titleholder, 13-2 Alpinista, 7 Torquator Tasso, 8 Vadeni, 12 Onesto, 14 Do Deuce, Pyledriver, Westover, 16 bar

William Hill: 7-4 Baaeed, 5 Titleholder, 6 Alpinista, 7 Torquator Tasso, 10 Do Deuce, 14 Pyledriver, Vadeni 16 bar

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