2023 Tolworth Hurdle: who wins Sandown's big race based on previous trends?

The first Grade 1 of 2023 in Britain takes place on Saturday as Sandown's Tolworth Hurdle (2.25) takes centre stage. The race can unearth Britain's star two-mile novice hurdler, just as it did with a certain Constitution Hill last year, and we have taken a look at who could join its roll of honour based on previous trends.

Age

Five-year-olds typically do best in the Tolworth, with half of its winners in the last decade having been that age courtesy of L'Ami Serge (2015), Finian's Oscar (2017) Elixir De Nutz (2019), Metier (2021) and Constitution Hill (2022).

Three-six-year-olds have won it in that time, as have two seven-year-olds, but there are no engaged runners of that age in this year's contest.

The stats bode well for outsider Blow Your Wad, who turned five on New Year's Day.

Form

Bringing winning form into the race is key, with nine of the last ten winners having scored on their previous start before Tolworth glory. Only Summerville Boy (2018) came into the race as a maiden.

Two of those, Elixir De Nutz (2019) and L'Ami Serge (2015), had been successful in Pattern company already that season, which bodes well for Listed winner Tahmuras.

Metier: on the Tolworth's roll of honourCredit: Mark Cranham (racingpost.com/photos)

Constitution Hill (2022) and Fiddlerontheroof (2020) had also impressively scored over course-and-distance before winning, which Authorised Speed and Colonel Harry have already done this season.

Direction

The unique nature of Sandown's right-handed track means form going into the race around that direction is key, with eight of the last ten winners having at least run that way around over hurdles before contesting the race, and seven of them having been victorious right-handed.

Only Elixir De Nutz (2019) and Summerville Boy (2018) had done all their racing over hurdles left-handed before winning the Tolworth. Tahmuras' hurdles runs have come in that direction, but he won a right-handed bumper at Wincanton.

Odds

The Tolworth has been a kind hunting ground for favourites recently, with six of the last ten market leaders obliging, including the last three runnings.

There has been no double figure-priced winner in the last decade, with Royal Boy having the highest SP of 9-1, which bodes well for leading candidates Authorised Speed, Tahmuras and Arctic Bresil.

Trainer

Colin Tizzard also has three wins in the race in the last decade but is now retired, however his son Joe, who has taken over the licence, could saddle gutsy Ascot winner Scarface.

Verdict

With Luccia an absentee, the trends pick is the Paul Nicholls-trained Tahmuras, who is unbeaten in two starts over hurdles. He was impressive when dispatching the 143-rated Sizing Pottsie at Haydock in November and plenty of the statistics suggest he will run a huge race.

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Unibet Tolworth Hurdle (2.25 Sandown, Saturday)

Paddy Power: 6-4 Authorised Speed, 13-8 Tahmuras, 5-2 Arctic Bresil, 12 L'Astroboy, 16 Colonel Harry, Nemean Lion, 20 Blow Your Wad, Ukantango, 25 Scarface, 50 Joe Dadancer

Read more . . .

'She keeps me up at night' – owner hoping Luccia can follow Constitution Hill (£)

Who is in contention for the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown on Saturday?

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