Japan's long wait for an Arc winner might finally be over, thanks to its faith in middle-distance breeding

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On this occasion, Martin Stevens looks at Japan's chances in their quest to win a first Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – subscribers can get more great insight every Monday to Friday.

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Surely this is the year that Japan wins the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and the ghosts of El Condor Pasa being caught by Montjeu in the shadow of the post, Deep Impact failing to fire behind Rail Link and Orfevre having to settle for second not once, but twice, are finally exorcised.

The stars seem to be aligning. On the one hand, Europe is sadly lacking in true superstars in the middle-distance division at the moment, especially when it comes to colts. 

That much is reflected in the betting for next month’s Longchamp spectacular, with the fillies Aventure and Minnie Hauk battling for favouritism, and the Andre Fabre-trained pair Cualificar and Sosie the only colts from closer to home quoted at 20-1 or less.

It’s a rum do, and probably further evidence that all of the constituent members that make up the sum of the racing industry in Britain and Ireland – those who govern it and fund it, breeders, trainers and owners – are not doing their best by the middle-distance programme, resulting in the most prestigious races in the calendar suffering.

Meanwhile, Japan has its strongest squad for the Arc in years. 

Byzantine Dream, a four-year-old who won the Red Sea Handicap in Saudi Arabia and finished a head second in the Tenno Sho (Spring) at home earlier in 2025, endorsed his claims with a decisive victory over Sosie over course and distance in the Prix Foy on Sunday, while Alohi Alii, a three-year-old who finished eighth in the Japanese 2,000 Guineas (held over ten furlongs at Nakayama rather than a mile, it’s worth noting), bolted up in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano at Deauville last month.

Then there is Croix Du Nord, who has looked a bit special in his unbeaten juvenile campaign last year and when cruising to victory in the Japanese Derby in May. He arrived in Chantilly last month and is set to take the unusual route of a prep run in the Prix du Prince d’Orange at Longchamp on Sunday.

Don’t forget Shin Emperor, either. The Grade 2 winner and Japan Cup second was a little disappointing in his attempt to emulate his full-brother Sottsass’s Arc success last year, but the rain-softened ground went against him. A good effort in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown on Saturday could put him spot-on for Longchamp three weeks later. 

Croix Du Nord: winner of the Japanese DerbyCredit: Masakazu Takahashi

The Japanese contingent will need things to fall in their favour to finally end their hoodoo in the international race they most ardently covet – the going remaining good or faster for a few of them, a decent draw and luck in running, of course – but the one thing they definitely have in their favour is pedigree.

Unlike a lot of high-class horses in Europe who get ten furlongs well but aren’t even tried over two furlongs further as it would stretch their stamina to breaking point (or so their connections insist), they are bred to stay.

Croix Du Nord, by Kitasan Black out of Rising Cross, was dealt with in this space earlier in the year, when John Best shared some wonderfully colourful memories of training the colt’s tiny but terrier-like dam, who finished second in the Oaks. 

Shin Emperor is actually French-suffixed, having been bred by Ecurie des Monceaux by sending the placed Galileo mare Starlet’s Sister back to Sottsass’s sire Siyouni. Also a half-brother to North American turf queen Sistercharlie, he was bought by trainer Yoshito Yahagi for €2.1 million at the Arqana August Yearling Sale.

So we’ll look at just the pedigrees of the recent French winners Byzantine Dream and Alohi Alii. As it happens, they are more thoroughly Japanese-bred.

Byzantine Dream was bred by Northern Farm from Epiphaneia, a Symboli Kris S half-brother to Japanese champions Leontes and Saturnalia who finished a close second in Japan’s 2,000 Guineas and Derby and hosed up in the country’s St Leger over 15 furlongs at three, and slammed Just A Way by four lengths to land the Japan Cup at four. 

Epiphaneia commenced stud duty at Shadai Stallion Station in earnest in 2016, and has racked up a splendid roll-call of winners in his first seven northern-hemisphere crops. He has 63 black-type runners to his name, headed by seven Grade 1 scorers, including Japanese fillies’ triple crown heroine Daring Tact, Japanese Derby and Dubai Sheema Classic victor Danon Decile and JRA horse of the year Efforia.

In a sure sign of how far Britain and Ireland and Japan have diverged, or rather how Britain and Ireland have strayed while Japan has stayed true to the traditions of the older European racing nations, the Japanese St Leger winner Epiphaneia heads this season’s two-year-old sire table in Japan, with 12 winners on the board.

Christophe Lemaire and Alohi Alii after dominating the Prix Guillaume d'Ornano at Deauville

But then again those Epiphaneia juveniles are the results of his first book of mares covered at a fee as high as 18 million yen (£90,000, €104,000) in the afterglow of second-crop son Efforia being crowned horse of the year at three and with first-crop daughter Daring Tact’s three-year-old exploits of her own still fresh in the memory, so he really should be excelling with that crop.

Byzantine Dream, who hails from Epiphaneia’s fifth crop conceived at a fee of five million yen (£25,000, €29,000), is the second foal, after five-time winner Jasmine Chara, out of Japoni Chara, who won three times but has no black type and still managed to win more than £200,000 in prize-money according to Weatherbys. There’s a reason why Japanese owners and trainers can afford to be patient.

Japoni Chara is by Jungle Pocket, a Japanese Derby and Japan Cup winner by Arc hero Tony Bin, and his dam is the dual winner Glitter Chara, who in turn was by French Deputy out of the top-class Sunday Silence mare Fusaichi Airedale, who also produced Japanese champion two-year-old colt Fusaichi Richard.

The bloodline has been nurtured in Japan since the mid-1990s export of Fusaichi Airedale’s dam Rustic Belle, an unraced Mr Prospector half-sister to Entitled To, whose 15 career victories included the Grade 2 Paterson Handicap at Meadowlands.

Japoni Chara has a two-year-old filly by Admire Mars named La Mia Melodia, who finished second and fourth at Monbetsu on her first to starts last month, and a yearling filly by Efforia who is therefore closely related to Byzantine Dream (pictured above). She produced a full-brother to Byzantine Dream this year.

Alohi Alii is meanwhile a member of the last of just five crops of foals sired by the brilliantly well bred Japanese 2,000 Guineas and Derby hero Duramente, who also finished second to Postponed in the Dubai Sheema Classic.

Duramente – whose first three dams Admire Groove, Air Groove and Dyna Carle were all champions in Japan – emulated his father King Kamehameha by becoming the leading sire in Japan in 2023, thanks principally to his tragically also ill-fated daughter Liberty Island winning the Japanese fillies’ triple crown and finding only Equinox too good in the Japan Cup.

Duramente also crammed in siring the Grade 1 winners Champagne Color, Dura Erede, Durezza, Lugal, Stars On Earth and Titleholder during his five years on the Shadai roster before his death from acute colitis in 2021 at the age of nine.

Byzantine Dream and Oisin Murphy hit the front to land the Red Sea Turf HandicapCredit: Grossick Racing Photography (racngpost.com/photos)

Alohi Alii was bred by Grace Inc and is the first foal out of Espoir, a daughter of dear old Orfevre, whose hopes of becoming the first Japanese-trained Arc winner were dashed first by Solemia in agonising circumstances and then by Treve, when he was beaten fair and square. 

Incidentally, Orfevre has sired some true top-notchers in his decade at Shadai, including Dubai World Cup hero Ushba Tesoro, Breeders’ Cup Distaff victress Marche Lorraine and outstanding Japanese racemare Lucky Lilac, but covered only 57 mares at a fee of 3.5 million yen (£17,500, €20,000) this year. He might be value for adventurous international breeders sending mares to Japan.

Espoir was twice Grade 3-placed in Japan over a mile to nine furlongs, once on firm, the other on heavy, which pays high tribute to her versatility. She is a half-sister to Japanese Derby third Admirable out of the unraced mare Scarlet, who was actually bred along similar lines to Byzantine Dream, being by Symboli Kris S out of the smart mare Grace Admire, by Tony Bin.

Grace Admire, also dam of the high-class Japanese performers Lincoln and Victory, was out of Ballet Queen, who was bred by Ballymacoll Stud in Ireland and placed with Dick Hern, but didn’t race and was exported to Japan at four.

Ballet Queen represented the best of Ballymacoll breeding, being a full-sister to Dewhurst dead-heater Prince Of Dance out of the magnificent mare Sun Princess, who looked to have the 1983 Arc at her mercy for most of the Longchamp home straight until she was nabbed by All Along. 

All of Espoir’s progeny subsequent to Alohi Alii have been fillies by Japanese triple crown laureate Contrail – a two-year-old, yearling and foal. 

Contrail’s first two-year-olds are racing this year and his six winners have put him at the top of the Japanese freshman table by prize-money. Being so talented on the track, and a well-bred son of Deep Impact, he has everything in his favour to succeed. Perhaps he can muster an Arc challenger of his own next year.

Indeed, when – not if – Japan does eventually win the world’s most important all-aged middle-distance race on turf, it might not relinquish it that easily. 

While you could be forgiven for worrying that Britain and Ireland are losing the skill of turning out top-class 12-furlong horses on a consistent basis, the Japanese are precision-engineering them.

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Good Morning Bloodstock is our unmissable email newsletter. Leading bloodstock journalist Martin Stevens provides his take and insight on the biggest stories every morning from Monday to Friday.