'Parts of the industry are in denial' - British and Irish foal crop declines by almost ten per cent in a year

Another worrying decrease in the foal crop has been confirmed as the number of live foals registered with the General Stud Book in Britain and Ireland took its most significant year-on-year dip for a decade and a half.

According to the publication of the Weatherbys Return of Mares, registrations up to September 30 showed that foals born between both countries had dropped by 9.5 per cent, to 11,374 from 12,578. The figure had also fallen six per cent last year, from 13,438 in 2023. 

Records over the last 20 years show the extent of the decline, as the total foal crop in 2006 was 17,527, meaning that the number has decreased by around 33 per cent during that time.

The largest drops, of 14 per cent and then 22 per cent in 2009 and 2010 were effectively triggered by the 2008 global financial crisis. This was particularly pronounced in Ireland, which has tended to breed around double the number of thoroughbreds produced in Britain, as it entered recession during a period of banking scandals and a collapse in the property market. 

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Having fallen to beneath the current total, the overall numbers had been broadly improving in the decade between 2013 and 2023 without recovering to their previous levels.

In Britain alone, the drop this year was five per cent, from 4,074 to 3,872. British breeding has slumped by 31 per cent during the past 20 years. The dip year-on-year in Ireland was 12 per cent, from 8,504 to 7,502.

The projected decline in the British foal crop was addressed in stark terms by Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association (TBA) chairman Philip Newton during his address at the organisation's annual general meeting in early September. 

There he stated: "I'm disappointed to say that parts of the industry are in denial about the serious problems the breeding industry is facing and how that will play out in the overall racing industry" and added that "the foal crop is under the most severe pressure".

The TBA has frequently pointed out the correlation between foal crops and diminishing field sizes, which then reflect on potential revenue for racing and associated industries through the levy and media rights.

The news follows an update earlier this week by the Jockey Club of America, which outlined that its own reporting of live foals in 2025 was down 3.4 per cent from this time a year ago, from 17,700 to 17,103. There is also expected to be a decline in France, although the final figures have not yet been published.

The TBA had modelled projected foal crops earlier in the year and had estimated a six per cent drop in Britain. It anticipates a further reduction of a minimum of another six per cent in 2026 as part of what Newton estimates to be a 25 per cent drop in five years.

Newton said in response to the publication on Friday: "The five per cent decline in the 2025 British foal crop is not unexpected, reflecting the projections from our own extensive modelling, which we have been sharing with the industry over the past six months.

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"While TBA led initiatives such as the Great British Bonus are making a difference, along with the expansion of this year’s NH Elite Mares’ Scheme providing some support for breeders, more substantial intervention is now needed to stabilise the foal crop and safeguard the future of British breeding."

Peter O'Reilly, CEO of the Irish Thoroughbred Breeders’ Association said: "On the foal crop side the trend overall has been lower with figures for last year from Weatherbys showing numbers at their lowest level since 2015. We did expect a further reduction this year which has been confirmed by the recent figures.

"However, it is not all doom and gloom as the foal numbers are still robust, and we are number three in the world behind the US and Australia and well ahead of the UK and France. In the short term, headwinds such as low prize-money and rising costs will continue to impact but the cycle will turn and those that can weather the current storm will be rewarded."

Reasons for the declining foal crop are manifold. TBA studies found that only 29 per cent of the yearlings who went through the sales ring in 2024 made a profit, while the top five per cent of the UK market accounted for 40 per cent of the turnover. 

Along with a polarised market the costs of production have increased, from general overheads to an employer's National Insurance contributions rising. Ed Player of Whatton Manor Stud, one of Britain's leading commercial nurseries, told the Racing Post earlier this year: "The thing that’s most worrying for us is quite a lot of our big, so-called well-off clients are also feeling the pinch and they’re cutting back on numbers." 

The TBA chairman Philip Newton has warned of the ramifications of a falling foal crop Credit: TBA

The likelihood of the foal crop continuing to drop was confirmed by other figures in the Return of Mares. The total number of broodmares reported at stud in Britain and Ireland in 2025 is down to 19,971 from 21,578 in 2024. This is a decrease year-on-year of seven per cent, with the figure having dropped five per cent last year too.

Of these mares, 2,348 were not covered. This figure has fluctuated in recent years at 2,205 in 2024 and 2,456 in 2023. Some 934 of those mares were in Britain compared with 1,414 in Ireland. 

There were 15,456 total recorded coverings in Britain and Ireland combined in 2025, compared to 15,983 in 2024. This works out as a three per cent decrease.

The number of stallions decreased by 15 in Britain, from 103 to 88 year-on-year (a 15 per cent decrease) while the number standing in Ireland decreased by 24, from 165 to 141 (also down 25 per cent).

Copies of the Weatherbys Return of Mares can be purchased here.

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