China Open predictions, odds and tennis betting tips: Medvedev can profit in Djokovic's absence

Where to watch China Open

Live on Amazon Prime, from 3am Thursday

Best bet

Daniil Medvedev to win the China Open
2pts 7-2 Coral, Ladbrokes

ATP China Open preview

The China Open returns to the ATP Tour calendar for the first time since 2019 and the absence of six-time champion Novak Djokovic means the top two seeds Carlos Alcaraz and Daniil Medvedev dominate the betting.

After claiming his 24th Grand Slam singles title at the US Open this month, Djokovic has opted for a break and has confirmed that he will miss the trip to Beijing as well as next month’s Shanghai Masters.

World number two Alcaraz and Djokovic’s US Open final victim Medvedev could outclass the 32-strong field with the super Serb missing, and the value may lie with the Russian.

Medvedev accounted for Alcaraz in four sets in their semi-final rumble at Flushing Meadows three weeks ago and he swerves the Spanish top seed as well as impressive Italian Jannik Sinner until the final.

The world number three meets Tommy Paul in the opening round but the American lost all three of his recent Davis Cup clashes in straight sets, suggesting he is there for the taking. 

Alex de Minaur, who faces Andy Murray in his China curtain-raiser, is Medvedev’s likely second-round challenger, although the Australian was overpowered 2-6 6-4 6-1 6-2 by him most recently at the US Open.

Potential quarter-final opponent Andrey Rublev trails his compatriot Medvedev 7-2 in their personal series and this is a quick turnaround for Alexander Zverev after he made the final in Chengdu, so there is plenty to like about the second seed’s prospects.

Medvedev thrives on hard courts, having claimed 18 of his 20 career titles on the surface, which includes wins in Rotterdam, Doha, Dubai and Miami this season.

Given the manner of Medvedev’s recent New York triumph over Alcaraz and the fact that the Spaniard may bump into fierce rival Sinner in the last four, it's difficult to see why there is such a disparity in the big two's outright prices.

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