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The bookmakers' take on how Saturday's General Election in Ireland will unfold

Mary Lou McDonald, whose odds have been slashed to be the next Taoiseach
Mary Lou McDonald, whose odds have been slashed to be the next TaoiseachCredit: Justin Farrelly +353871385224

What do you think the outcome of the election will be?

Barry Orr, Betfair Despite what Micheal Martin says, betting on the Betfair exchange would suggest a Sinn Fein coalition with Fianna Fail is the most likely result.

Nicola McGeady, Ladbrokes Although there have been plenty of political upsets in recent history, it is hard to see past Fianna Fail winning most seats and Micheal Martin becoming next Taoiseach, while a Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein coalition is looking increasingly likely.

Lawrence Lyons, BoyleSports Fianna Fail to be the largest party with Independents and Greens propping them up in the new government.

William Kedjanyi, Star Sports It's a boring answer, but it goes without saying that no one party will have a majority and it will be days, maybe weeks or months, before the winner is known. The Sinn Fein surge will hold up well, and they'll make gains in areas such as Wexford, Cavan-Monaghan, Mayo, Meath East and Donegal.

Greg Walker, Betdaq The new Taoiseach will be Micheal Martin with Fianna Fail, Greens and Independents making up the government.

David Fleming, Paddy Power It looks very likely now that we will have a change of government with Fine Gael support plummeting over the last two weeks. Fianna Fail are set to gain upwards of ten seats so Micheal Martin will lead the next government.

Which outcome would be the worst for your firm?

Barry Orr The exchange is always a good barometer for general elections and Micheal Martin, at 2-9, to be the next Taoiseach is the most traded market.

Nicola McGeady In the space of a week Mary Lou McDonald’s odds have been dramatically slashed to 8-1 from 25-1 to be next Taoiseach following sustained support. Out of all the markets on offer, that is the worst result in the book.

Lawrence Lyons The polls have us concerned. If Sinn Fein win most seats or Mary Lou McDonald becomes Taoiseach, we are in big trouble.

William Kedjanyi Sinn Fein winning under 30.5 seats at the election - a very shrewd punter has gone big on unders, and he looks to have done nicely. It’s a high bar even if the surge keeps going until Friday.

David Fleming Sinn Fein to win most seats would be our worst result. With them flying in the polls this has been backed in to 10-1 from an opening price of 66-1.

What’s your best bet for any election market?

Barry Orr With people having such limited spare time over the course of their weekends voter turnout has to be badly affected by the election being held on a Saturday. With that in mind, at 1.69 (5-7) under 65.54 per cent in the voter turnout market looks a cracking bet.

Nicola McGeady The latest opinion polls have seen Sinn Fein surge past the others and although senior Fianna Fail TDs insist they won’t go into a coalition with them, I think it is on the cards at odds of 7-2.

Lawrence Lyons Peter Fitzpatrick to get elected in Louth. He is an Independent this time, has a good local profile and there are five seats up for grabs.

William Kedjanyi Whether the new Sinn Fein surge carries all the way through to the election remains to be seen but they’ve definitely put a dent in Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, and it wouldn’t surprise if they won over 21.55 per cent of the first preference votes. The anger at Ireland’s housing situation isn’t going away for a long time.

Greg Walker The next government to be Fianna Fail, backed up by Greens and Independents.

David Fleming A Fianna Fail-Sinn Fein coalition at 9-2 looks the value in the next government market. On current projections they could have a majority in the Dail between them negating the need to bring independents or smaller parties with them.


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