Election insight: Ten constituencies that could decide who claims victory

Best bets

Independent to win Ashfield
Plaid Cymru to win Ceredigion
Conservatives to win Crewe & Nantwich
Conservatives to win East Devon
SNP to win East Dunbartonshire
Liberal Democrats to win Esher & Walton
Brexit Party to win Hartlepool
Conservatives to win Kensington
SNP to win North East Fife
Conservatives to win Southampton Itchen

On the last day of the 2019 General Election campaign, all parties and activists will be pushing themselves to the limit.

Taking an average figure from the polling data, the Conservatives have a ten-point lead to defend, but a swing within the margin of error to Labour could leave the country on the verge of another hung parliament.

Of the 60 or so seats that would form the backbone of a Boris Johnson majority, many are contests with just five or so points between the leading two parties so there is all to play for among canvassers, politicians and punters.

The 2017 election was also an extremely tight contest. There were 51 ultra-marginals; constituencies where the majority is less than two per cent. And of the 650 constituencies, 97 were won by a margin of five per cent or less.

Extend that definition of marginal to a majority of ten per cent of the vote or more and you have more than 100 seats in play for one or more parties.

As an example, there were nine key constituencies that were so tight in 2017 that the Conservatives could have won an absolute majority on the basis of just 533 extra vote.

Indeed, spread a handful of votes differently and a working majority could have been achieved on just 75 additional votes in the right places.

There are a huge number of seats for each party to target and especially for the three biggest parties.

There are 41 seats, many of them Labour, where the 2016 Leave vote was more than 55 per cent and where the Conservatives need a swing of no more than 7.5 per cent.

The 17 constituencies which have a 2016 Remain vote of more than 60 per cent will be on the Lib Dems’ radar – especially as only two have what could be called insurmountable majorities.

Labour are eyeing 12 Conservative seats, remain-voting marginals which would require a swing of less than five per cent.

The SNP are eyeing 18 Remain-voting seats in Scotland and all 13 of the Tory seats in Scotland went Remain – in other words, there is very fertile ground for punters.

Hartlepool

Labour held, majority of 7,850

With a 70 per cent Brexit vote, this is the top target seat for The Brexit Party and they have responded by sending Richard Tice to contest the seat. Tice is well liked among Leavers across the country and this is one of the places where the Leave vote could be strong enough for them to beat Stefan Thoughton of the Conservative Party without letting Labour’s Mike Hill in.

North East Fife

SNP held, Majority of two

If one person had voted the other way in the 2017 election it would have been left in a tie, with the returning officer forced to draw lots to determine the winner. Instead Stephen Gethins just about won and he now defends a majority of two with the party as a whole polling strongly but independence is not quite as popular as last summer. The margin of victory – if he retains his seat – will probably be seen as a bellwether for Scotland.

Kensington

Labour held, majority of 20

Labour's Emma Dent Coad snatched this seat from Victoria Borwick, turning it Labour for the first time since the 1970s. She has the smallest English majority and will be fiercely defending it from the Tories' new candidate Felicity Buchan, but both will also be challenged by former Tory MP - and now Liberal Democrat - Sam Gyimah, who is also standing in the Remain-voting seat. The three-way race is tight – a recent Deltapoll gave the Tories 39 per cent, Labour 29 per cent and the Lib Dems 26 per cent in the area.

Southampton Itchen

Conservative held, majority of 31

The Tories took this seat from Labour with a majority of more than 2,000 in 2015 but amid National gains Labour managed to cut the majority to 31 and make this an ultra-marginal. Southampton voted 53.8 per cent Leave which will encourage Royston Smith (Conservative) but Labour’s Simon Letts has received a lot of ground support and will hope to turn out his student base.

Crewe And Nantwich

Labour held, majority of 48

A marginal since 2008, this was taken by Laura Smith, the Labour MP since 2017 who is in another tight battle with Dr Kieran Mullan, the Conservative candidate. The seat voted 60.9% to Leave, which puts Smith in a tough position to defend. Again, this will be seen as a marker for how the Leave argument has performed.

Ashfield

Labour held, majority of 441

Conservative candidate Lee Anderson, who used to work for the Labour MP who has now stood down Gloria De Piero, has called for forced labour camps and also set up a fake door knock in front of journalist Michael Crick. Brexit Party candidate Martin Daubney is targeting a Leave vote of nearly 70 per cent, while Independents stormed the local elections in May, ending up with 30 of 35 seats on the borough council only four years after they were founded.

East Dunbartonshire

Liberal Democrat held, majority of 5,337

This seat is known to many because Liberal Democrat leader Jo Swinson won it in 2017, taking it back from the SNP, but a majority of 5,339 isn’t unsurpassable. Amy Callaghan, an office manager to an MSP who has also worked for the Scottish Government, has run a very hard campaign which has even seen Owen Jones visit the seat. Swinson’s opposition to another Independence Referendum and her absence from the area while she runs a national campaign could make this much tighter than two years ago.

East Devon

Conservative held, majority of 8,036

There’s also a fascinating race in East Devon. The outgoing MP – Sir Hugo Swire – is being replaced by an ex-BBC radio presenter Simon Jupp. Then there’s Independent candidate Claire Wright, an ex-councillor who won more than 21,000 votes at the last election, a brilliant performance for an Independent. Then there’s Labour, the Lib Dems, and Greens into the mix.

Ceredigion

Plaid Cymru, majority of 104

A mixture of agricultural areas and university towns, Ceredigion is a unique and fascinating Plaid-Liberal Democrat marginal which Plaid captured with just 104 votes in 2017 from Mark Williams who had been its MP since 2005. It’s a must win for Plaid. If their candidate Ben Lake – Wales’s youngest MP – loses the seat then they’ll need to retain two of their other seats. The Lib Dems will have felt very good for most of 2019 but Mark Williams will worry their recent slump affected their vote here and the Tories’ Amanda Jenner will look to beat off the Brexit Party’s Gethin James to the Leave vote.

Esher and Walton

Conservative, majority of 23,298

This might seem to be an extraordinary inclusion but many punters have cottoned on to the Remain campaign to unseat Dominic Raab. The Lib Dems hope Monica Harding, as short as 9-4 to win the vote, can benefit from mass tactical voting which would see local Labour supporters and other Remainers attempt to club together and take advantage of a Remain vote that comes to nearly 60 per cent. The Greens stood down their candidate to help, too, and Raab has been under fire for his campaign.

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