Toulouse v Exeter predictions and European Champions Cup tips: No stopping terrific Toulouse

Where to watch Toulouse v Exeter

TNT Sports 1, 3pm Sunday

Best bet

Toulouse to win by 11 to 20 points
1pt 3-1 bet365

Toulouse v Exeter predictions

Five-time European champions Toulouse were one of the outstanding sides in the pool stage of the European Champions Cup, qualifying as top seeds and scoring 178 points and 26 tries in their four games, and they are long odds-on to see off the challenge of Exeter Chiefs at their Stade Ernest Wallon fortress.

Les Toulousains have won all 13 of their home matches this season in the Top 14 and Europe, eight of them by more than 20 points, and they went through the gears with ease last week in a 31-7 success over French rivals Racing 92.

The handicap is set at 21 points for Sunday's quarter-final and there's no doubt the hosts have the scoring power to run up another big score with half-back Antoine Dupoint and Romain Ntamack back in tandem to run the show.

But the Chiefs have been obdurate opponents, this is knockout rugby where winning matters more than how much you win by, and a physical Exeter outfit look to stand a chance of holding their ground enough to keep the score down.

Exeter have a strong set piece and territorial kicking game and that pragmatic approach saw them through their round-of-16 tie at home to Bath last week, when they fell behind but hit back with three tries, all scored by back-row forwards.

It's fair to say a star-studded Toulouse backline represent far more of a threat than Exeter are used to facing at home and the Chiefs have come unstuck against teams with a sharp attacking edge in the Premiership, losing home and away to Northampton, as well as away trips to Harlequins, Bath and Northampton.

None of those defeats was by more than 20 points though, and the only time they have been turned over by more than Sunday's handicap was in their latest Premiership outing at a desperate Sale side.

Toulouse could still run away with it so taking odds-on about Exeter staying within the bookmakers' line makes limited appeal, but a wager on a winning margin for the hosts of 11 to 20 points at bigger odds looks worthwhile.

In the last of the Challenge Cup quarter-finals Benetton are four-point favourites at home to Connacht (TNT Sports, 12.30pm) - the winners will travel to Gloucester in the semi-final.

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