State of Origin game three; New South Wales v Queensland tips & TV details

TV: Sky Sports Arena & Main Event, 11.10am Wednesday

New South Wales are on the verge of back-to-back State of Origin series victories for the first time since 2005 and the Blues can finish the job on home soil in front of a fervent Sydney following.

The Blues romped to a 38-6 game two victory in Perth and it’s difficult to see how they can mess this up.

History is against them but everything else points to Brad Fittler’s men lifting the shield after 80 minutes at ANZ Stadium.

Aside from a poor second-half performance at Suncorp Stadium in game one, when the Blues threw away an 8-0 half-time lead, they have dominated proceedings.

Fittler rejigged his back-line for game two and it paid off with Tom Trbojevic grabbing a hat-trick of tries and James Maloney, Nathan Cleary and James Tredesco all part of an impressive display.

Cleary misses out this time through injury and is replaced by experienced half-back Mitchell Pearce, but that is unlikely to unsettle the Blues too much.

Prop Matt Gillett misses out for Queensland and is likely to be replaced in the starting line-up by David Fifita but that is a huge loss to Maroons boss Kevin Walters.

Bookmakers expect it to play into the hands of New South Wales and a Blues victory is just 2-5, while they give up eight points on the handicap.

It may not be as easy as those prices suggest, though, as the third game is notoriously tough when a decider and Queensland have often stepped up to the plate with the series on the line.

The Maroons have won the last seven deciders while NSW have taken one of the past nine – an 18-14 victory at this venue in 2016.

Out of the 20 game-three deciders played since the competition began in 1982, Queensland have won 13 with NSW claiming just four, but they can add a fifth this morning.

It may not be as emphatic a result as the one in Perth but backing the Blues looks the way to go in a tight encounter.

NSW won 18-14 in last year’s finale and that made it seven straight Origin games at ANZ Stadium that have been decided by four points or fewer so it may also pay to expect a match featuring no more than 34 points.

Recommendations
NSW to win by one to 12 points
1pt 9-5 Coral, Ladbrokes
Under 34.5 total match points
2pts 10-11 Betway

Already advised
NSW to win series
5pts 4-7 bet365

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