St Helens v Warrington: Coral Challenge Cup betting preview, free tips, TV time

TV: BBC1, 3pm Saturday

When St Helens won the Coral Challenge Cup for the third consecutive time 12th time in 2008, few among the 82,000 at Wembley would have thought that the Saints would still be waiting for their 13th triumph more than a decade later.

But the drought is set to end on what could be the hottest Challenge Cup final afternoon on record with pitchside temperatures expected to be well over 30C.

On the face of it a clash between the top two teams in the Betfred Super League ought to be closely contested, but bookmakers believe it will be anything but with Saints 4-11 to lift the trophy and Warrington 5-2 underdogs. The Wolves receive a ten-point buffer on the handicap. If anything, the layers haven’t gone far enough.

Justin Holbrook’s table-toppers stand head and shoulders above the rest at the Super League summit having lost just three of their 26 league games and although the Wolves are second, they are 16 points adrift and are nearer bottom club London than the league leaders.

The finalists have met three times already this season with Saints having won all three by a combined margin of 89-34.

Warrington posted the first points on each occasion and those who believe the pattern will continue can get 6-4 against the Wolves scoring first.

It must be much longer odds against Warrington talisman Blake Austin taking any part. The brilliant Australian playmaker hasn’t played since injuring an ankle in the defeat at Catalans earlier this month but rumours persist that Wolves coach Steve Price may take a chance on his main man.

It’s not difficult to see why. Austin was Man of Steel favourite before sustaining the injury and Warrington have been comprehensively beaten by Wigan and St Helens in his absence.

Matty Smith, Austin’s loan replacement in those losses, is ineligible for the final so Price has a real headache.

Does he risk a far from fully-fit Austin or end up with players out of position?

The fact is Price’s team have been mainly moderate for months. The hard-fought semi-final success over Hull was their only win in their last six outings and they have won only seven of their last 17 league matches since disputing the early leadership of the competition with Saints in April.

The league leaders have been consistently excellent all year and with or without Austin, it’s difficult to see where Warrington’s points will come from. Saints have allowed their opponents to reach 20 points only seven times in 29 competitive fixtures.

With the League Leaders’ Shield sewn up weeks ago, coach Holbrook has had the luxury of resting and rotating his squad and big-hitters Lachlan Coote, Alex Walmsley and James Roby will all return for this showpiece showdown.

Roby is the only Saint to have played on this stage while 15 Wolves have Wembley experience, though most were in a losing cause against Hull in 2016 or last year against Catalans.

Narratives abound at any cup final but punters should treat it like any other game. Those who followed Racing Post Sport’s advice to back Saints at 3-1 at the last-16 stage are in good shape but there are still ways to support the favourites on the day.

Numerous times this season, they have shown their strength in the second half. Last week, they romped home 36-20 at Leeds having been locked at ten all at the break and they have dominated the second period in all three meetings with Warrington.

They have won the second 40 minutes by 12, 15 and 16 points, so a couple of wagers appeal.

Saints can overcome a six-point second-half handicap at even money and that can be supplemented by backing them to outscore the Wolves by 11 to 20 points after the break at 5-2.

On a baking hot day, there could be plenty of points and bookmakers have the total tally line in the mid 40s.

However, it worth bearing in mind that of the 12 finals played at the new Wembley have featured fewer than 45 points.

Recommendations
St Helens -6 on second-half handicap
3pts Evs Sky Bet
St Helens to win second half by 11 to 20 points
1pt 5-2 Sky Bet

Already advised (May 10)
St Helens to win Challenge Cup
6pts 3-1

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