Hull and Leeds set to play out another close encounter

Ladbrokes Challenge Cup semi-final
BBC1, 2.30pm Saturday

Leeds were the last team to beat Hull in the Ladbrokes Challenge Cup in the 2015 quarter-final and the Rhinos are blocking the path to a second successive Wembley appearance for the Black & Whites.

Leeds, who won the trophy in 2014 and 2015, are 11-10 to oust the holders with Lee Radford's side quoted at 10-11.

As the odds imply, a tight contest is in prospect. Just two points separate the sides in the Betfred Super League and when they met at Headingley a fortnight ago, the Rhinos scrambled home 10-7.

Hull had a possible match-winning try disallowed and were without mercurial half-back Albert Kelly who returns for this encounter so the Airlie Birds will fancy their chances of reversing the form on neutral ground in Doncaster.

Kelly's return is likely to be Hull's only change from the team that beat Huddersfield a week ago while the Rhinos will be unrecognisable from the side who were hammered at Wigan.

Boss Brian McDermott was without 13 first-teamers, some injured, many rested and up to ten of the absentees will be back in action.

They include captain Danny McGuire, who has recovered from a hamstring problem and other key men such as highly influential hooker Matt Parcell, Joel Moon and Ryan Hall.

Those four all scored tries in the Rhinos' 52-24 rout of Hull at the KCom Stadium in April, which was their eighth successive win over these opponents.

When Hull have been bad this season, as they were that night, they have been awful, but when they have been good, as in the previous round of the cup against table-topping Castleford, they have been superb.

The vast variation in Hull's performances makes predicting a winner a tricky task and the best bet may be to back fewer than 45 points to be scored.

Both teams have been involved in 13 league matches that have tallied 44 points or fewer in 23 outings in 2017 but the statistics for semi-finals are even more telling.

Nine of the last dozen Ladbrokes Challenge Cup ties at this stage of the competition have ended up short of the quoted line.

They include Hull's nail-biting 16-12 win over Wigan at the Keepmoat Stadium a year ago and their 2013 victory over Warrington by the same scoreline.

Leeds's semi-final successes in 2014 and 2015 produced 40 and 38 points respectively.

Recommendation
Under 44.5 total match points
3pts 10-11 Betfair

Already advised
Leeds to win Ladbrokes Challenge Cup
2pts each-way 10-1 BetBright, Coral (April 21)