Australia v Samoa World Cup final predictions: Aussies to land another title

Free rugby league tips, best bets and analysis for the World Cup final between Australia and Samoa at Old Trafford.

Where to watch

BBC One, 4pm Saturday

Best bets

Under 45.5 total points
2pts 10-11 Betfred

Samoa +18
1pt 11-10 Hills

Saturday's World Cup final preview

Samoa have rocked the Rugby League world to pitch up in the World Cup final for the first time and they could make their mark against an Australia side who are expected to be in the big dance every time the tournament is held.

The Samoans bounced back from a 60-6 opening-round thrashing by England to exact their revenge in last week's semi-final with a golden-point victory over the Three Lions, and they like nothing more then to upset the odds.

They also turned over highly-fancied Tonga in the quarter-finals and will be relishing their shot at the 11-time world champions.

Matt Parish's men haven't looked back since that opening-day hiding at the hands of England and have timed their charge to perfection.

Standing in their way now, though, is the most successful side in the international game and Samoa will need to raise their game even further, if possible, to record another stunning victory.

Bookmakers believe that's unlikely and make Australia red-hot 1-9 favourites to claim another world title with Samoa dismissed as 7-1 rags, but the underdogs possess plenty of bite and deserve some form of support.

That may come in the way of an 18-point start on the handicap, while it may also be worth backing total points to fall short of the layers' expectations in Manchester.

Only two of the 13 previous finals has surpassed the 45-point mark set for the Old Trafford showpiece with Australia scraping past England 6-0 in the 2017 decider.

The Aussies have been scoring points for fun in this tournament but only just edged their way past New Zealand 16-14 in last Friday's exceptional semi-final and were fortunate to see the Kiwis have two tries ruled out in the second half.

New Zealand dominated the forward battle at Elland Road and Samoa have the firepower to do something similar. They will need to, though, as history isn't on their side.

It's 3-0 to Australia in the pair's previous meetings with the Kangaroos winning by an aggregate 156-28 scoreline in that time.

The Aussies were 46-0 victors when they last met in 2017 but this Samoan side is made of far sterner stuff.

They've handed out a couple of hammerings against Greece and France but they have also shown they can mix it with the big boys when needed, while some of their rugby has been exceptional, with their Harlem Globetrotters-style second-half score against England a likely try of the tournament contender.

Half-back Jarome Luai has been in inspired form and leads the tournament with eight try assists along with Kangaroos counterpart Cameron Munster, and it promises to be a fantastic battle in the middle.

Australian are expected to have the edge as they chase a 12th world crown, but things could be closer than expected and a tight battle can be expected on a chilly night at Old Trafford.

CLICK HERE FOR YOUR CHANCE TO WIN A 65" TV

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport