Trust Grimsby to go on the attack at Cambridge
Wise words from the master of statistics
3pm Saturday
Grimsby may spend longer attacking in their League Two game at Cambridge than bet365 anticipate. At least Grimsby may gain a larger share of the corners, which is one of the potential consequences of doing more attacking.
Back Grimsby +3 Asian handicap corners at decimal odds of 1.9. If Grimsby are beaten in the corners count by four or more the bet will lose, if they are beaten by three stakes will be refunded and if anything else happens the bet will win.
Recently Cambridge have done unusually well on corners handicaps and Grimsby have done unusually badly. But unusual stats tend to be followed by less unusual ones, and the prospect of that process starting today may be better than bet365 imagine.
First of all, though, what generally happens in this sort of game?
Grimsby and Cambridge are 19th and 20th in League two, both with 15 points. Grimsby have a better goal difference and have played one game fewer. Today, though, Cambridge will enjoy ground advantage.
The result-related markets imply something like a 54 per cent chance of a Cambridge win, a 26 per cent chance of a draw and a 20 per cent chance of a Grimsby win.
Over the last 20 seasons in Football League games with similar result expectations fair odds about the outsiders on an Asian corners handicap of +3 would typically have been about 4-7, which is of course much shorter than 9-10.
The odds should not be that short at the Abbey Stadium.
Both clubs have comparatively new managers. Joe Dunne has managed Cambridge since February, Michael Jolley has managed Grimsby since March. During those times Grimsby have gained a smaller share of the corners in their away matches than we should have anticipated from them, and Cambridge have gained a larger share at all venues than we should have anticipated from them.
We must acknowledge those facts. If they are repeated today Grimsby +3 Asian handicap corners is a bet that will almost certainly lose. But they might not be repeated. Eventually those unusual stats will give way to less unusual ones, and the prospect of that process starting today may be better than bet365 envisage.
Recommendation
Grimsby +3 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.9 bet365
Thoughts for the day
Paul Pogba was criticised for taking 28 steps and nearly ten seconds before striking a penalty for Manchester United against Everton last Sunday. It was saved though he scored from the rebound. The penalty counts as a failure.
Pogba has scored five penalties out of eight in club football for Manchester United and Juventus. His strike rate is therefore 62.5 per cent, which as his critics have rightly pointed out is poor.
Just for the sake of argument, though, imagine that he had scored one of the three penalties that were saved (all of his penalties have been on target). It is not that hard to imagine. His strike rate would now be 75 per cent – six out of eight – and that is about standard for a top-level penalty taker. In the Premier League in the 15 seasons before this one, 77 per cent of penalties were scored.
Pogba’s slow-motion run-up may not be the most effective approach to a penalty, and he has not always used it, but his stats are not that far from being acceptable.
-------
Both goals were own-goals when Middlesbrough and Derby drew 1-1 in the Championship last Saturday. Clearly that was unusual. How unusual?
About one goal in 40 goes down as an own goal. The chance of two goals both being own-goals is about one in 1,600 (40 x 40 = 1,600).
A 1-1 draw occurs in the Football League in two out of every 15 games. Put another way, it is a one in 7.5 chance.
A 1-1 draw with both goals being own goals is something that should happen in the Football League about once every 12,000 games (40 x 40 x 7.5 = 12,000).
Derby kept on conceding own goals. In the EFL Cup on Wednesday Chelsea’s first two goals were credited to Derby players. So that was three own goals against in a row. The chance of that happening with any three consecutive concessions is about one in 64,000 (40 x 40 x 40 =64,000).
Read every day for no-nonsense previews and expert sports betting tips
Today's top sports betting stories
Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport
Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport
Published on inOpinion
Last updated
- Tom Clark: Luke Humphries the missing SPOTY nominee out to spoil Littler's party
- Mark Langdon: Overseas fans need more respect
- Simon Giles: Maintaining intensity is crucial for mid-table improvers
- Mark Langdon: Premier League rollercoaster leaves me sick
- Patrick Madden: Joe Schmidt's revolution should ensure the Lions won't have it all their own way Down Under
- Tom Clark: Luke Humphries the missing SPOTY nominee out to spoil Littler's party
- Mark Langdon: Overseas fans need more respect
- Simon Giles: Maintaining intensity is crucial for mid-table improvers
- Mark Langdon: Premier League rollercoaster leaves me sick
- Patrick Madden: Joe Schmidt's revolution should ensure the Lions won't have it all their own way Down Under