Post-World Cup performances point to bright future for Manchester United under Erik ten Hag

Manchester United were bigger than 4-1 when they hosted 6-10 shots Liverpool in the Premier League in August but the dramatic swing in fortunes for the rivals since then is reflected by the fact that United are only marginal outsiders at Anfield this weekend.

The Red Devils are 7-4, having been 6-1 for the same fixture towards the end of last season as the wheels came off towards the end of Ralf Rangnick's interim stewardship. 

Erik ten Hag has changed the atmosphere and trajectory of the club, who pocketed the first trophy on offer this season, beating Newcastle in Sunday's EFL Cup final, after knocking Barcelona out of the Europa League last week.

Going into the Old Trafford clash with Liverpool, United were bottom of the table following a 2-1 home defeat to Brighton and a 4-0 humbling at Brentford.

Those reverses forced the club's hierarchy to splash the cash again and the arrival of Antony and Casemiro took the spending under Ten Hag past the £200m mark.

Since those first two games, only leaders Arsenal have won more points than United's 49 in 22 matches. 

Their overall underlying numbers for the season suggest the Red Devils have run a bit hot, although they are hard to assess as they have clearly improved and their numbers took some heavy punishment in defeats at Manchester City and Arsenal.

By and large, Ten Hag's men have won the games they deserved to and lost the ones in which they were clearly second-best. Where they have impressed is in turning their tighter matches into three points more often than might have been expected.

That was certainly the case before the World Cup, when six of their eight wins were by a single-goal margin. Their victories at Southampton, Leicester and Fulham and at home to West Ham could easily have returned a couple of draws.

Those points were banked, however, and since the World Cup United have generally outmuscled opponents to a greater extent. Only three of their last seven wins in the league have come by a single goal and their underlying stats back up the impression that they are an improved side deserving of their place in the top three.

No team have picked up more points since the resumption of the Premier League season but United have benefited from the most favourable stretch of fixtures. Eight of those ten matches have been against teams in 12th place or lower, although the other two were against title contenders Arsenal and Manchester City.

The Red Devils' home record is excellent so it will be interesting to see how they cope with three of their next four league games coming on the road at Liverpool, Brighton and Newcastle. They have won only one of seven away from home against sides in 12th place or higher.

Those games are sprinkled among their European commitments and, while they eventually ran out convincing winners in recent league games against Leeds and Leicester, there were signs in both first halves that the demands of their hectic schedule could leave them vulnerable at some point.

One of the biggest question marks against Ten Hag's side in the first part of the season was whether they possessed the cutting edge to score enough goals. Since the resumption they have scored twice or more in 18 of 20 games in all competitions.

They haven't thrashed any opponents but have created and converted chances consistently, including in the 4-3 aggregate win over Barcelona, which suggests their impressive results are not simply due to their easier fixtures in the league.

While stats paint some of the picture, Ten Hag has also instilled improved discipline and a united dressing room which, along with the manager's attention to detail, have no doubt helped his side get over the line in tight contests.

United do not exert the same possessional or territorial control as Arsenal and Manchester City do but in Casemiro, Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez they have elite performers down the spine of the team who usually win their individual battles when the team look as though they may be exposed.

Casemiro's influence has been well documented but it bears repeating that United have picked up 30 points from a possible 39 in the matches he has started, a rate fractionally below Arsenal's league-leading pace.

Ten Hag hasn't just signed well, he has also improved the players he inherited. Marcus Rashford's 32 goal involvements in 39 appearances is the clearest example of that but Fred, Diogo Dalot and Aaron Wan-Bissaka have also been put in better positions to succeed.

How far can United go? They are 14-1 to win the league, which would probably require them picking up at least 36 points from the remaining 42 available. It's unlikely given the standard set by Arsenal and City but, if United can navigate their tricky upcoming away fixtures without losing further ground, they could at least be close enough to keep the pressure on the teams above them.

A more realistic target is to secure a return to the Champions League next season. They are 1-9 for a top-four finish in the Premier League having been 7-1 before the first clash with Liverpool in August – another indication of the progress made under Ten Hag. 

The fact that United have kept the show on the road despite regular injuries to Anthony Martial and Antony and the recent unavailability of Christian Eriksen and Casemiro is testament to the structure put in place by the Dutchman, as well as his ability to profile players and find new solutions. 

There have been false dawns under previous United managers and there may well be upcoming setbacks given their demanding fixture list. 

But the fact that Ten Hag has got them performing to this level despite the obvious need for upgrades to the squad – a new striker, a 'number eight' in midfield and a ball-playing goalkeeper, for example – should fill United fans with optimism for the future.

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