Mark Langdon: The different ways to evaluate form in football betting

There are many different ways to evaluate the form of a football team and even the word form means different things to different people.

The online dictionary definition refers to form as "the state of a sports player or team with regard to their current standard of play" and for a lot of bettors that means whether a team is simply picking up results. Manchester City are top of the table and therefore in good form, while winless Bournemouth are in bad form because they are 17th, but that isn't the literal definition.

If you look at bit deeper Bournemouth's schedule has been brutal. West Ham (home), Liverpool (away), Tottenham (home), Brentford (away), Chelsea (home) and Brighton (away) - realistically the Cherries would not be expected to win many of those games and their "standard of play" looks all right.

It doesn't get much easier with Arsenal next , but Bournemouth then tackle Everton, Wolves and Burnley which should offer more opportunity for points.

Others will take form to mean the result of the last game. Sky Sports pundit Paul Merson received plenty of stick for his pre-match assessment of Arsenal v Tottenham last week when he said: "I can't see anything but an Arsenal win. I think they will absolutely slaughter them, I do. Absolutely rip them to shreds... if you open this game up then Arsenal will destroy Tottenham. And I mean destroy them.”

Following the 2-2 draw in the north London derby and ahead of Spurs facing Liverpool, Merson wrote in his Sky Sports column: "If Liverpool come away from Tottenham with a win then it's a massive result. I'm not saying they will lose the game, but to go to Tottenham now, you're up against a very good team with good players.

It's not a dig at Merson. That is how most people assess football but as bettors you need to try to remove yourself from the noise as much as possible because you will jump from one opinion to another without a more considered long-term view.

Expected goals is one angle which goes beyond the results and interestingly Chelsea have won every league game by that metric this season, while Understat's expected-points table puts the struggling Blues up in fifth. Luton are another team leaving points on the table with a differential of -4.89 between actual points and expected points, which may explain why the Hatters were strongly supported in the market before last week's draw with Wolves to such an extent that they were favourites in-play even before the red card to Jean-Ricner Bellegarde.

Another angle which might pay over the longer term is to assess which teams are performing well (or badly) against market expectations. Nottingham Forest are a good example of a side who are punching above their weight. 

Forest have already been to Arsenal, Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City plus they have hosted Burnley and Sheffield United and Steve Cooper would definitely have been happy with seven points from those six matches before a ball was kicked.

Cooper probably doesn't realise they have beaten the Asian handicap line fully in four of those matches, with one half win and one half loss. Forest are being ultra-competitive in matches and might see the next three games against Brentford, Crystal Palace and Luton as big opportunities to make significant strides up the table. 

You could even say they are in good form despite one win in four.

Premier League predictions

Nottingham Forest draw no bet v Brentford Evs

Brentford have one win this season and are not offering a huge amount from open play. Ivan Toney and Rico Henry are long-term absentees and without those two it's a push to make them favourites at the City Ground where Forest have lost only two of their last 17 home league games.

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