Mark Langdon: Damning stats that show Ten Hag needs to go

It is probably safe to presume that if you are reading this you will at the very least have a passing interest in betting but for those football fans who wouldn't know the difference between a Super Heinz and a tin of baked beans, it would no doubt come as a shock to know just how far Manchester United have fallen.

We all know United are bad, but just how bad? On Friday morning Betfair's Exchange odds for the Premier League game at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday read: Bournemouth 2.54, United 2.72 and the draw was 4.1. Manchester United are underdogs to beat Bournemouth. How has it come to this?

United have injuries and they might still win on their trip to Dorset. They could still lift the FA Cup and as unlikely as it looks, particularly after a bad midweek in Europe for the Premier League's co-efficient rankings, there is still the outside possibility of Champions League qualification for next season.

But it becomes more apparent with every week that whatever Erik Ten Hag is trying to do at Old Trafford is totally broken and the sophisticated algorithms which go into setting betting odds are proof of the declining standards at United.

New sporting operations guru Sir Jim Ratcliffe is not short of a few quid and the billionaire could spend however much is required to do a root-and-branch investigation as to whether he should stick with the Dutchman, but one look at the match odds should tell him all he needs to know.

The league table says United are sixth but Understat's expected-points model has them 15th, 12 points below their actual standings. Only Crystal Palace, Wolves, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United are worse than United, which would seem almost impossible given they have one of the biggest wage bills in world football.

Fbref's expected-goal difference table makes for even more depressing reading – if that's possible. United are at -0.37 per 90 minutes which sees them 16th in that ranking, behind just West Ham, Burnley, Luton and Sheffield United, and their expected goal difference against of 57.3 is even worse than Burnley's 56.6. 

For comparison Bournemouth are tucked away in mid-table in terms of most of the underlying data, which is testament to the work done by new manager Andoni Iraola. The Cherries are also in the mix to land at the very least a place in the Premier League ante-post handicap betting after being handed a start of around 50 and if Ratcliffe was searching for a sensible replacement for Ten Hag he might need look only ten yards towwards the opposite dugout this weekend at what can be achieved with a clever coach.

Bournemouth striker Dominic Solanke admitted it was tricky to adapt to Iraola's methods early on, which is understandable, and told the Times: "We couldn’t take in all the information at first. I’m pressing with a number ten behind me and, at first, our timing was off. We didn’t know when to press or to drop, but now it’s second nature, as the manager has gone through it many times."

That is what good coaches do. 

Ten Hag's second season is nearly up and, if anything, the style of play is getting worse even though the manager insisted last week: "We know what our identity is. We want to dominate the game. In and out of possession. We want to play out from the back."

If that is true you would expected United to be better than tenth in the possession stats, but it is off the ball where Ten Hag seems to have lost the plot. The Manchester men have allowed a truly astonishing 548 shots – the second-most in the league and only seven fewer than the doomed Blades.

So Ten Hag needs to go - Sir Jim can have that for free, and I may as well give him the Grand National one-two while we are it. I Am Maximus from Minella Indo.

Read more from Mark Langdon . . .

Pessimistic about goals in title showdown 

Phil Foden out wide is no left-field decision 

Jurgen Klopp v Pep Guardiola is a Premier League masterpiece 

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