Kevin Pullein's football bet of the day

Kevin Pullein's bet of the day

West Ham +4.5 Asian handicap corners
1pt 1.9 bet365

Back West Ham +4.5 Asian handicap corners in their Premier League game at Chelsea. Bet365 quote decimal odds of 1.9, equivalent to fractional odds of 9-10. The bet will pay out so long as West Ham do not lose the corners count by five or more. They could – but the chance that they will not may be better than the odds suggest.

West Ham have been on a bad run – no win in their last seven Premier League games – but I still regard them as fairly typical of non-elite Premier League teams, and more importantly so do bookmakers.

The result-related markets for Stamford Bridge, stripped of their overrounds, imply a 75 per cent chance of a Chelsea win, a 16 per cent chance of a draw and a nine per cent chance of a West Ham win.

Across the ten Premier League seasons before this one, at home to teams who finished outside the top six, Chelsea won 73 per cent of their games, drew 19 per cent and lost eight per cent. The proportions are similar. So those games may give us an indication of the chance of different things happening today.

Over those past ten seasons Chelsea’s average finishing position was fourth. Before kick off they are fourth.

In 60 per cent of Chelsea’s home games against non-top-six opponents during that last decade the opponents beat an Asian handicap corners line of +4.5. Odds of 1.9 imply a 53 per cent chance of a bet being successful. West Ham beat +4.5 Asian handicap corners on six of their last nine trips across London to Stamford Bridge. (For one of the last ten seasons they were playing in the Championship).

Admittedly this season Chelsea have forced a lot of corners in some home games and West Ham have conceded a lot of corners in some away games. Chelsea won the corners count by more than 4.5 in both of their last two Premier League home games, against Crystal Palace and Newcastle.

West Ham lost the corners count by more than 4.5 in both of their last two away games, against Burnley and Everton, neither of whom are as powerful an attacking force as Chelsea.

Those runs could be extended and the bet could lose. But the chance that it will not may be better than odds anticipate.

Thought for the week

The second round of the FA Cup may illustrate some interesting truths about goals in football matches.

The number of goals in a match is influenced by at least two things: the difference in ability between the teams and the importance of the occasion. The smaller the difference in ability between two teams the lower the score is likely to be. And the more important the occasion is the lower the score is likely to be.

That is why there are more goals in the early rounds of the FA Cup.

Across the 25 seasons from 1994-95 to 2018-19 goals per game averaged 3.0 in the first round, 2.8 in the second round and dropped to 2.2 by the final.

The final is much more important than the first round. And the difference in ability between participants is typically smaller. So scores tend to be lower. Last season, granted, there were six goals in the final, but that was a wide exception to the rule.

The second round features teams from League One, League Two and below the EFL. Over the last 25 seasons when League One teams played each other goals per game averaged 2.7. When League One teams played League Two opponents goals per game averaged 2.8. And when League One teams played opponents from below the EFL goals per game averaged 3.2.

The greater the difference in playing-level between two teams, other things being equal, the higher the score.

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