Kevin Pullein: losing teams receive more cards

Manchester United in the Premier League have averaged 48 per cent possession at home and 59 per cent possession away. This is partly because they have lost only once at home and won only once away.

Teams tend to have the ball for longer when they are losing than when they are winning, which is the opposite of what many people think.

Last Sunday Manchester United were involved in a crazy 3-3 draw at Sheffield United. They accrued 59 per cent possession. This was partly because they were behind for 59 minutes, level for 25 minutes and ahead for only 11 minutes. (Those numbers add up to 95 because I have included stoppage time).

Manchester United are an extreme example of a common phenomenon. Against any given opponents a team are likely to have more possession if they lose than they would have done if they had won.

As I say, this is the opposite of what many people think. But there are good reasons why it happens, as we shall see. And it has implications for many betting markets.

I took results from the last 17 Premier League seasons, 2002-03 to 2018-19. Then I divided games into groups according to the difference in final league positions between the teams. In that way I gathered together similar games.

For each group I noted the possession of the higher finishers and lower finishers in games that the higher finisher won, games that were drawn and games that the lower finisher won. And what I found across all groups was that teams tended to have more possession when they lost than when they drew, and more possession when they drew than when they won.

Typically the difference in possession-share between losing and winning was about three per cent. That might not sound like much but it works out as almost two minutes more with the ball and two minutes fewer without the ball. (And remember: the ball is in play usually for less than 60 minutes not 90 minutes plus added time).

Goals change games. When a team take the lead they become more cautious. They do not have to score again to win. All they need to do is not concede. So they commit fewer players to attacks, which peter out more quickly.

When a team fall behind they become more adventurous. They will lose unless they score. So they send more players forward to join attacks, which therefore last longer.

A goal in a football match is like a key-change in a song. Afterwards everything is a bit different. The team who are losing have more of the ball than they did before, the team who are winning have less of the ball than they did before.

And as possession shifts, so does much else. Some things you can bet on come from a team having the ball and some from them not having the ball. As possession-shares rise and fall so do shares in other things. Corners and bookings, for instance.

The longer a team spend with the ball near the opposition’s goal the more corners they are likely to force, and vice versa.

Against any given opponents a team are likely to gain a higher share of the corners if they lose than they would have done if they had won. Typically, according to my research, about five per cent more.

They are likely to stir more yellow and red cards too. This is something else that might sound counter-intuitive. Most cards are shown for a misjudged attempt to regain the ball, and teams spend less time without the ball when they lose than when they win. When they are losing, however, they are more desperate to regain the ball.

Footballers, like everyone else, can get frustrated when things are not going their way. And a frustrated footballer is more likely to make a rash challenge provoking a yellow card or even a red. Typically, I have found, teams receive a seven per cent higher share of all cards when they lose than they would have done if they had won.

Why England stats went up and down in the Nations League

Possession, as I say, varies with the score. It is so in club football and it is so in international football.

There was an extreme example last season in England’s Nations League games against Spain – even more extreme than in Manchester United’s home and away games this season in the Premier League.

England lost 2-1 at home then won 3-2 away. They had 45 per cent possession at home but only 27 per cent away. This was partly because there was much less time when they needed to score in the second game than in the first.

England led from the 16th minute in Spain. By the 38th minute they were three up. After the game had developed so well for them they had little use for possession. For most of the match they did not need to score and Spain did.

At home England also led, but only for two minutes. There was much longer when England needed to score and Spain did not. Therefore England had more possession.

As a rule, the stronger team in a match are likely to have most possession win, draw or lose. But if they lose they are likely to have even more possession than they would have done if they had won.

Spain in recent years were usually considered stronger than England, and they prized possession anyway. Against England they were always likely to have most possession, but even more when they lost than when they won.

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