Olympics men's football predictions & free betting tips: Hosts look a decent bet

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Sunday's men's football at the Tokyo 2020 Olympics.

Where to watch

Japan v Mexico
Eurosport Player, midday Sunday

Best bet

Japan
1pt 7-4 BoyleSports

Preview

Takefusa Kubo’s strike gave Japan an opening Olympic victory against South Africa and the home nation look ready to build on that solid 1-0 victory against Mexico.

El Tri’s 4-1 win over France in their first contest of the Games caught the eye, but on another day things could have been very different. Jamie Lozano’s side had less possession than their opponents in that high-scoring victory, they managed just a single corner and they won the shot count only 14-12.

Two excellent finishes from Francisco Cordova and Uriel Antuna put the game beyond France, but those efforts are going to be difficult to repeat.

Japan controlled the game against South Africa and they should prove tougher for Mexico to expose. Hajime Moriyasu’s side dominated the ball in their Olympic opener and they won the shot count 13-4. It was a far more convincing performance than the narrow scoreline suggests.

The home nation have plenty of quality in their squad with Real Madrid’s Kubo, Stuttgart’s Wataru Endo and Ritsu Doan of PSV all operating in midfield and of course they are anchored at the back by experienced Sampdoria defender Maya Yoshida.

Mexico are a dangerous side when they are allowed to utilise the pace in their squad in wide areas and in behind defences. That was the case as France were forced to chase the game after falling 2-0 behind. However, Japan are a tight unit, they retain possession extremely well and that is likely to limit El Tri’s attacking threat.

Samurai Blue will pose Mexico plenty of problems and you have to wonder if a rearguard that has shipped goals against Saudi Arabia and Honduras recently will hold up against the quality of Japan’s attack. Certainly, veteran Mexican keeper Guillermo Ochoa looked far from convincing against France.

Obviously, Japan have home advantage with the game being played in Tokyo, but what’s less clear is why Samurai Blue are rated as outsiders for this clash. Quotes of 7-4 look to underestimate Japan’s chances of booking their place in the knockout stage of the competition.

There’s plenty of Olympic football action today and Brazil’s clash against the Ivory Coast should be a cracker. Little Canary have plenty of talent in their squad and they are looking to make it back-to-back victories after an impressive 4-2 win against Germany. Andre Jardine’s side are 2-7 to win again and it’s 1-2 that we see at least three goals.

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