Azerbaijan Grand Prix betting tips and F1 predictions: Perez can prevail

Where to watch

Sky Sports F1, from midday Sunday

Best bets

Sergio Perez
1pt 3-1 bet365

Alex Albon points finish
1pt 6-5 bet365

Lewis Hamilton podium finish
1pt 6-5 bet365

Azerbaijan Grand Prix predictions

Charles Leclerc will line up on pole position for the third consecutive Azerbaijan Grand Prix on Sunday but, if Saturday’s sprint race is anything to go by, the Monegasque driver may struggle to convert it to his first win in Baku.

The Ferrari looked strong in the opening portion of the sprint but was soon left trailing in the wake of the dominant Red Bull as Sergio Perez blazed past the Prancing Horse with the aid of DRS and soon dropped the pole-sitter, winning the full eight points available by a 4.5-second margin.

Max Verstappen, despite sporting a huge hole in his sidepod after an opening-lap collision, managed to keep Leclerc honest throughout and the drop-off in pace towards the end suggests Ferrari could, once again, struggle with tyre wear on Sunday.

For Perez, that did not seem to be an issue. The Mexican is widely regarded as one of the best at tyre management on the grid and tends to excel on street circuits, too. He will start third on the grid on Sunday but, with the tyre degradation in the sprint hinting at a potential two-stop Grand Prix, he cannot be discounted.

Perez is more than capable of stretching his tyres out and going for a one-stop strategy if the rest of the field opt for a two-stop race. All four of his Grand Prix victories since joining Red Bull have come on street circuits, including his first win for the team in Baku in 2021, and he looks a good price to become the first driver to win two Grands Prix in Baku.

Another driver excellent at race management is Alex Albon and the Williams man is good value to claim points for the second time this season at 6-5. He narrowly missed out on the final points place in the sprint on Saturday as he crossed the line ninth but an identical finish on Sunday would secure much-needed points after two retirements in Australia and Saudi Arabia. 

He has exceeded expectations in the Williams since he joined the team last season and, starting 13th on the grid, he has a lot of room to play with strategy in a potential two-stop race.

Lewis Hamilton looks a good bet to secure his second successive podium, too. The drop-off in Ferrari pace towards the end of the sprint suggests that Mercedes have the edge over the Scuderia in race trim, and the ongoing unreliability of Aston Martin’s DRS mechanism could take them out of the equation. 

Seven-time champion Hamilton, starting fifth, is unlikely to challenge the mighty Red Bulls but can make the best of an advantage in race pace and tyre degradation to finish ahead of the Ferrari duo, while teammate George Russell starts all the way back in 11th and is unlikely to be a threat.

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