F1 Italian Grand Prix qualifying predictions: Pole battle could be close

Free F1 tips, best bets and analysis for the Italian Grand Prix qualifying session at Monza on Saturday.

Where to watch

Practice three Sky Sports F1, midday Saturday
Qualifying Sky Sports F1, 3pm Saturday

Best bet

Qualifying winning margin under 0.1 seconds
1pt 7-4 bet365

Italian Grand Prix qualifying preview

Having a penalty hanging over his head didn’t stop Max Verstappen from setting the fastest qualifying time in Belgium two weeks ago, and bookmakers expect a repeat performance in this afternoon’s Italian Grand Prix qualifying session.

Runaway championship leader Verstappen faces a five-place grid drop for changing engine parts, but several others have more severe handicaps to overcome.

The Dutchman’s Red Bull teammate Sergio Perez drops ten places, Valtteri Bottas 15, and Lewis Hamilton and Carlos Sainz will start from the back, all for taking new parts. Yuki Tsunoda meanwhile gets a ten-place drop after amassing five reprimands during the season.

Practice day at Monza belonged to Ferrari, much to the delight of the partisan crowd.

Charles Leclerc – one of the few unpenalised front-runners – set the pace in the morning before teammate Sainz led the way in the afternoon.

But Verstappen has been in dominant form since the teams returned from the summer break with heavily updated cars.

The Dutchman has claimed the fastest qualifier-race winner-fastest lap treble at each of the last two races and even trimmed out for maximum top speed the Ferraris could struggle to keep up in qualifying.

Verstappen is a prohibitive price to top qualifying, but there could be some mileage in backing a winning margin of under 0.1 seconds.

That bet would have won in each of the last three years at Monza, as well as two of the last three races this season.

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