Tiger Woods and Xander Schauffele may emerge as Jug rivals

Sky Sports Golf, 8am Sunday

Open leaderboard
-9 Jordan Spieth, Xander Schauffele, Kevin Kisner
-7 Kevin Chappell
-6 Francesco Molinari
-5 Tiger Woods, Webb Simpson, Alex Noren, Matt Kuchar, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood, Zach Johnson
-4 Erik van Rooyen, Zander Lombard, Tony Finau, Charley Hoffman, Adam Scott, Justin Rose, Austin Cook

Best prices
21-10 J Spieth, 11-2 X Schauffele, 13-2 K Kisner, 14 F Molinari, 16 R McIlroy, 18 T Woods, 20 T Fleetwood, 22 K Chappell, 28 A Noren, 35 Z Johnson, 40 J Rose, 45 M Kuchar, 50 W Simpson, 80 A Scott, 100 bar

Final-round advice
The 147th Open Championship is beautifully poised with 18 holes to go and it seems like some classic Open weather will accompany what should be a thrilling denouement.

A sunny and breezy final afternoon at Carnoustie will test the leaders to the full and whoever lifts the Claret Jug on Sunday night will have tamed the famous Angus links at its most difficult – firm and windswept.

Title contenders slowly but surely dropped away in the third round – the 40 players who had a chance at the halfway stage is probably down to 19 – and outright punters face the task of working out who are the most serious runners.

Bookmakers are happy to make Jordan Spieth their short-price favourite after his Saturday fireworks, but the evidence of this season as a whole indicates that the defending champion is far from certain to justify his odds.

Spieth has been inspired by the Open over the first three rounds, delivering a stout Jug defence, but he has not won a tournament since Royal Birkdale 12 months ago and had been unimpressive in his six events from the Masters to the Open.

The favourite got a dream start in round three, the first hole gobbling up his eagle putt, getting his tail wagging immediately. Things could be different in the tougher Sunday conditions, carrying the pressure of leading, and the history of recent failure will be a heavy weight on his shoulders if he makes a bad start.

Spieth obviously deserves his place at the head of the market – he has three Major victories under his belt and is tied at the top with two players who have none – but there is no urge to get involved in the short odds next to his name.

Xander Schauffele, the same age as Spieth at 24, continues to impress enormously. His birdie putt at the 18th hole of round three was awesome in the context of the event and the career progress he has made over the last 13 months is astonishing.

Schauffele was world number 352 at the US Open last year, but he finished fifth and had risen to world number 24 before jetting to Scotland this week. The biggest tournaments seem to bring out the best in him, which is the sign of a great player. He is a superb driver, which will stand him in good stead in round four at Carnoustie.

Schauffele blew a winning chance in the Greenbrier Classic last time out, slumping to a final-round 75, but the two-time US Tour champion should go close to a first Major title.

Kevin Kisner is the weakest of the three leaders. He finds fairways and putts well, but he carded a Sunday 74 last year in the USPGA – his first serious chance of Major glory – and may not be quite good enough, technically or mentally, to emerge triumphant on a tight Open leaderboard.

It would be a surprise if any of the three pacesetters kicked clear of the pack, and there must be every chance of those behind getting heavily involved in the final-round shootout.

Kevin Chappell has been appalling since withdrawing from the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play in March and his form could disappear as quickly as it came, while Francesco Molinari is not a fan of links golf and looks set to fall just short, despite his magnificent recent form on the US Tour.

The biggest threats to the leading trio are arguably the class acts lurking at five under par. If all three frontrunners wobble, which is entirely possible in the forecast conditions, then a front-nine surge from Tiger Woods, Alex Noren, Rory McIlroy, Tommy Fleetwood or Zach Johnson could put them bang in contention.

Noren and Fleetwood are quality, in-form players who have won prestigious events, but Woods, McIlroy and Johnson already have Major titles in their locker and are probably the most serious threats from the chasing pack.

The final round could unfold with Spieth and Schauffele holding their positions on the board, with Woods, McIlroy and Johnson slowly but surely inching closer. It is difficult to be confident about which of that quintet will hold their nerve over the super-tough final four holes to claim the Jug.

Schauffele has the best record of the five players mentioned on the final four holes this week – he is two under par – while Spieth has the worst. Spieth has played 15, 16, 17 and 18 in a total of four over par.

Racing Post Sport followers are on Woods ante-post at 30-1 and the 14-times Major champion has the scent of glory in his nostrils. If the greatest player of his generation can get closer to the top of the leaderboard, his rivals – even Spieth – will find that a huge psychological burden, and the Carnoustie galleries will turn up the volume, particularly if fans' favourite Fleetwood is out of the running.

Woods (18-1) and Schauffele (13-2) are the outright recommendations for punters looking to invest at this stage, while final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Adam Scott, who has been reaping reward for extremely thorough Carnoustie preparation this week and plotting safe passage to the greens.

Scott has found 39 greens in regulation over the first three rounds, will appreciate the tougher tee-to-green test on Sunday, and can leave Charley Hoffman behind in the 1.35pm match. Hoffman is often a weak finisher of tournaments.

Marcus Kinhult, an improving youngster who played well on links terrain in his amateur days, is worth chancing to upset Jason Day in the 10.15am contest. Kinhult won the Lytham Trophy – at an Open venue – by eight shots in 2015. A tailed-off Day could lack focus and his loose driving should be punished.

The final twoball of Spieth and Schauffele is due on the tee at 2.45pm. Woods is off at 2.25pm, alongside Molinari.

Twoballs recommendations
A Scott
3pts 10-11 general

M Kinhult
1pt 9-4 Coral, Ladbrokes

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