Steve Palmer's Open Championship third-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event Golf and Golf, 9am Saturday

Best bets

Jordan Spieth third-round leader
2pts 11-2 Betfair, Hills, Power

Jordan Spieth to win the Open
2pts 9-2 general

Brooks Koepka (8-15) to win twoball, Jon Rahm to win twoball (8-15), Shane Lowry to win twoball (4-6)
2pts treble Betfair

Story so far

Pre-tournament 35-1 chance Louis Oosthuizen leads the Open Championship by two shots heading into the weekend - the South African contending in his third consecutive Major.

Oosthuizen finished tied second in the US PGA behind Phil Mickelson in May, then runner-up to Jon Rahm in the US Open a month ago. The 38-year-old is a best-price 5-2 to shrug off those Stateside near-misses and secure a second Open title at Royal St George's on Sunday.

Oosthuizen won the 2010 Open at St Andrews by seven shots, cruising to victory at 16 under par, and there has been similarly low scoring in Kent this week. There was some rain in the lead-up to the tournament and the R&A, perhaps reacting to the general lack of enthusiasm among the players for this venue and its notoriously bumpy fairways, have been happy to present a softer, greener track than is usually seen in Sandwich. The best in the world have taken full advantage.

Collin Morikawa, who won the US PGA Championship in his first start in that event, is seeking to repeat the trick as an Open debutant. The Californian, 40-1 at the start of the week but into 9-2 with 36 holes to play, put on an exhibition of iron-play in round two and is alone in second place. Ben Curtis won the Open at Sandwich on his debut in 2003.

Jordan Spieth, the 2017 Open champion, is alone in third spot, three shots behind Oosthuizen. Spieth, a pre-tournament 20-1 chance, is a general 9-2 to claim the Claret Jug for a second time on Sunday.
Tyrrell Hatton, Patrick Cantlay and Patrick Reed were the shortest-priced runners to miss the cut. The third round starts at 9.30am, with the final twoball of Oosthuizen and Morikawa boarding the first tee at 3.55pm.

Leaderboard
-11 Louis Oosthuizen
-9 Collin Morikawa
-8 Jordan Spieth
-7 Dylan Frittelli, Dustin Johnson, Scottie Scheffler
-6 Daniel Van Tonder, Emiliano Grillo, Marcel Siem, Andy Sullivan, Justin Harding
-5 Brooks Koepka, Mackenzie Hughes, Jon Rahm, Cameron Tringale

Selected others
-4 Tony Finua, Danny Willett, Shane Lowry
-3 Daniel Berger, Justin Rose, Sergio Garcia
-2 Webb Simpson, Tommy Fleetwood, Lee Westwood
-1 Justin Thomas, Viktor Hovland
Par Matt Fitzpatrick, Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Abraham Ancer, Harris English
+1 Bryson DeChambeau

Missed cut
+2 Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, Tyrrell Hatton
+3 Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed
+5 Jason Day
+12 Phil Mickelson

Withdrew after round one with injury
Will Zalatoris

Best prices
5-2 L Oosthuizen, 9-2 C Morikawa, J Spieth, 8 D Johnson, 14 J Rahm, S Scheffler, 18 B Koepka, 40 P Casey, 50 D Frittelli, 66 A Sullivan, E Grillo, 80 S Lowry, J Harding, C Smith, T Finau, 125 D Van Tonder, 150 bar

Third-round preview

Louis Oosthuizen has finished in the top three in three of the last four Majors - but he has failed to win any of them - and the challenge for the leader appears a mental one rather than a technical one.

Oosthuizen has been swinging superbly for months and his putting statistics are wonderful. He tops the PGA Tour strokes-gained-putting stats. Every department of his game seems ready for the assignment of converting this lead.

The man from Mossel Bay front-ran in the Open with confidence 11 years ago. The question for punters is whether some scar tissue has developed since - he has finished second in Majors six times since winning his lone title.

The US Open will rightly be remembered for Jon Rahm brilliance at the 17th and 18th, but even despite the Spaniard's late fireworks, Oosthuizen had a fantastic chance to take the trophy. From the final group, he covered the closing eight holes in one over par, a stretch which included two par-fives.

Oosthuizen has never won anything Stateside and will probably feel much more comfortable leading an Open than any of the other three Majors, but there is no urge to invest at a best-price 5-2 about the Sandwich pacesetter.

Fifty percent of 36-hole leaders (or co-leaders) have won the Jug since 2010. Oosthuizen had a five-shot lead at this stage 11 years ago, which was reduced to four in round three. Darren Clarke shared the halfway lead with Lucas Glover at four under par in the last Open at Sandwich, one shot ahead of a quartet in third, going on to win the title by three.

Collin Morikawa could be expected to develop into an Open champion sooner rather than later - precision is typically more important than power in an Open - and this Major may suit him better than the three in the States over time. The fact he has got on the leaderboard on his Open debut, though, shows what an amazing talent he is.

Morikawa gave no clues in finishing tailed off in the Scottish Open last week that he was ready for a tougher links, but he put some new irons in his bag on Thursday which perform better on links turf for him, and the results have been spectacular.

If Oosthuizen finds the recent narrow failures catch up with him, and Morikawa's lack of Open experience tells at some stage, then Jordan Spieth is best placed to topple both. Spieth at a general 9-2 is the most appealing option of the front three.

It is impossible to rule out any of the front three, but Spieth has the most solid credentials. Three Major titles in his locker, super-consistent form coming into the event, a passion for links golf and a Sandwich set-up which has turned out to be ideal for him.

Royal St George's has not offered the driving examination of previous Opens there - there has been too much moisture in the turf - so Spieth has found it fairly easy to get his ball in play. From there he has been able to showcase his deadly irons and putting.

Punters should not expect any of the front three to implode. Sunshine and breezes of around 12 mph are set to provide welcoming conditions. But Spieth is the recommendation for those wanting to invest at this stage.

Dustin Johnson clearly likes St George's, where he finished runner-up in 2011, and the world number one has made a welcome return to form this week. It remains to be seen whether his recent fragility with driver and putter returns under weekend pressure.

The most likely candidates to charge from deep are arguably Brooks Koepka (18-1), Jon Rahm (14-1) and Shane Lowry (80-1). Koepka, Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament headline selection, dropped ten shots off the pace after a double-bogey at the fourth hole in round two, but the Floridian's Major grit showed from there, with seven birdies to the clubhouse.

Koepka and ante-post favourite Rahm - both six shots behind - will still feel well in the hunt. Lowry fell two over par through two holes - a horror start to his title defence - but the Irishman has massively impressed since then. He is playing well enough to overcome a seven-shot halfway deficit.

Koepka (against Mackenzie Hughes, 2.55pm), Rahm (against Cameron Tringale, 2.45pm) and Lowry (against Brandt Snedeker, 2pm) can comprise an attractive Saturday twoballs treble.

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