Steve Palmer's Open Championship final-round preview, best bets, free golf tips

Golf tips, best bets and player analysis for the final round of the 149th Open Championship at Royal St George's.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 8am Sunday

Best bets

Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm dual forecast
1pt 50-1 BoyleSports

Jon Rahm to win the Open
1pt each-way 18-1 bet365

Jordan Spieth to win the Open
1pt each-way 11-2 BoyleSports

Shane Lowry and Paul Casey both to finish in the top ten (including ties)
1pt 8-1 Betfair, Power

Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm to both shoot 68 or better
1pt 6-4 Coral, Ladbrokes

Jon Rahm to make five or more birdies/eagles
1pt 4-5 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

Louis Oosthuizen, a pre-tournament 35-1 chance, leads the Open by a shot going into the final round at Royal St George's, Sandwich, Kent.

The South African, Open champion at St Andrews in 2010, birdied the 16th hole in round three to get his nose back in front and he goes into Sunday as 13-8 favourite.

Collin Morikawa, enjoying a fantastic Open debut, recovered well from a poor start on Saturday, covering his final 12 holes in four under par, resides alone in second place. The Californian, 40-1 before the off, is 2-1 with 18 holes to play.

Jordan Spieth missed a tiny par putt on the 18th green, sealing a bogey-bogey finish which dropped him three shots behind, but the 2017 champion is still well in the hunt.

Pre-tournament 8-1 market leader Jon Rahm has moved menacingly into a share of sixth, five shots off the pace. Defending champion Shane Lowry is a further two shots adrift.

Leaderboard
-12 Louis Oosthuizen
-11 Collin Morikawa
-9 Jordan Spieth
-8 Corey Conners, Scottie Scheffler
-7 Jon Rahm, Mackenzie Hughes, Dylan Frittelli

Selected others
-5 Webb Simpson, Daniel Berger, Paul Casey, Shane Lowry
-4 Dustin Johnson
-3 Matthew Fitzpatrick, Justin Rose, Brooks Koepka
-2 Viktor Hovland, Tommy Fleetwood
-1 Rory McIlroy
Par Justin Thomas
+2 Xander Schauffele
+3 Bryson DeChambeau

Missed cut
+2 Francesco Molinari, Marc Leishman, Tyrrell Hatton
+3 Patrick Cantlay, Patrick Reed
+5 Jason Day
+12 Phil Mickelson

Withdrew after round one with injury
Will Zalatoris

Best prices
13-8 L Oosthuizen, 2 C Morikawa, 11-2 J Spieth, 18 J Rahm, 20 S Scheffler, 25 C Conners, 80 M Hughes, 100 D Frittelli

Final-round preview

The final round of the 149th Open Championship has just got underway, with the final twoball of Louis Oosthuizen and Collin Morikawa on the tee at 2.35pm. Perfect weather is expected - sunshine, temperatures around 25C and only a gentle breeze.

Oosthuizen and Morikawa are in the best position - both Major champions and both swinging well - but there are no guarantees that the mild-mannered duo will retain their composure for another 18 holes with the Claret Jug waiting at the other end.

Oosthuizen, who has finished second six times in Majors since his lone success 11 years ago, has much less margin for error than he had in the 2010 edition, which he led by four going into a St Andrews Sunday. Will the recent near-misses in the US PGA and US Open, fresh in his memory, unsettle him down the stretch?

Morikawa had never played in an Open prior to this week, let alone won one, and the 24-year-old has to handle the intense and unique atmosphere of an Open final round. Will his suspect putting be up to the task?

It seems entirely feasible the two quiet men in the final twoball have quiet rounds, inviting pressure from behind, and the two players who are close enough and good enough to take advantage of any water-treading out front are arguably Jordan Spieth and Jon Rahm.

Spieth has the mentality of a champion - one of the finest golfing brains in the modern game - and will have quickly forgotten his missed tiddler on the 18th green in round three. He just headed straight to the practice green to work on his stroke with his coach. There is every chance the gritty Texan galvanises himself for Sunday and eats quickly into his three-shot deficit.

Spieth at 11-2 is an attractive price, while the 18-1 about Jon Rahm deserves consideration too. History suggests a player needs to be closer to the front to claim the Jug, but Rahm is an explosive talent capable of throwing trends out of the window.

Emphatic favouritism did not sit well with Rahm on Thursday and he made an edgy, irritable start, but a second-round 64 got him back into things and five Saturday birdies kept him in touch. The Spaniard was much happier on Saturday night than he was on Thursday morning - all smiles as he explained his gameplan for Sunday with Sky Sports. He made no bones about - he is going to attack in the forecast calm - and the 18-1 that he overcomes a five-shot deficit to secure back-to-back Major wins is worth an interest.

The Spieth and Rahm outright dual forecast seems worth chancing at 50-1, while three round-four specials also appeal. Coral and Ladbrokes go 6-4 about both Spieth and Rahm carding 68 or better on Sunday, while the same firm offer 4-5 about Rahm making five or more positive marks to his scorecard (birdies or eagles).

Shane Lowry and Paul Casey are playing alongside each other, starting the day in a share of 12th place, and the 8-1 available with Betfair and Power about the European duo ending up in the top ten (including ties) seems generous.

Lowry has played beautifully this week, failing to capitalise enough on the greens, and could be set for a late gallop. Casey, clearly shocked by the incredible level of support he got on the first tee in round three, made a mess of the opening hole before getting into a groove.

Lowry and Casey might pull each other along to big things. It will not take much for this in-form duo to move into the top ten.

Not got a bet365 account? Sign up today and get up to £100 in bet credits

Up to £100 in Bet Credits for new customers at bet365. Min deposit £5. Bet Credits available for use upon settlement of bets to value of qualifying deposit. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply.

MORE FREE BETS

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport