Koepka can lead the Spieth-chase at soggy Birkdale

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Jordan Spieth retained his place at the top of the Open Championship leaderboard in the third round at Royal Birkdale, the relentless pacesetter firing his second 65 of the week.

Spieth, who already has the Masters and US Open titles under his belt, is three shots clear in Southport and no bigger than 2-7 to claim the Claret Jug for the first time.

Spieth was 16-1 co-favourite of three on tournament eve, but has been clear market leader ever since teeing off on Thursday morning. He was 6-4 at the halfway stage, going odds-on during a bogey-free Saturday round.

Matt Kuchar is alone in second place, the ante-post 55-1 chance cut to 5-1 with 18 holes to play, with US Open champion Brooks Koepka tied for third. Americans are dominating another Open at Birkdale. Five of the previous nine Opens at this venue have yielded a Yank victor.

Rory McIlroy started his Saturday quest to catch Spieth in extremely positive fashion, making birdies at first, fourth and fifth to move four under par for the tournament and within two shots of the lead. He shortened from 7-1 to 3-1, but the 2014 champion soon capitulated, ending the day nine shots adrift.

Branden Grace carded the lowest round in Major history, a superb eight-under-par 62, but the South African is the same price he was at the start of the tournament (50-1).due to rampant Spieth being seven shots superior.

Canadian youngster Austin Connelly is alongside Koepka in third, while world number two Hideki Matsuyama is tied for fifth with Grace. Dustin Johnson and Henrik Stenson share seventh spot after charging up the board on Saturday with a 64 and 65 respectively.

The final round is forecast to be played in sunshine on a soft course. Heavy rain has been falling in Birkdale all morning and is not expected to clear until 9am. Flat calm conditions should allow the early starters to make plenty of birdies, with the wind getting up just as the leaders tee off, peaking with 26mph gusts in the early evening.

The first twoball is off at 8.05am, with Spieth and Kuchar boarding the first tee at 2.30pm. A four-hole playoff will ensue in the event of a tie at the top.

Leaderboard

-11 Jordan Spieth
-8 Matt Kuchar
-5 Brooks Koepka, Austin Connelly
-4 Branden Grace, Hideki Matsuyama
-3 Dustin Johnson, Henrik Stenson, Chan Kim, Rafael Cabrera-Bello
-2 Ross Fisher, Rory McIlroy, Richie Ramsay, Ian Poulter
-1 Rickie Fowler, Alex Noren, Richard Bland

Selected others

Par Jason Day, Sergio Garcia
+1 Tommy Fleetwood
+3 Jon Rahm, Adam Scott
+4 Justin Rose

Missed cut

+7 Justin Thomas
+8 Patrick Reed
+10 Phil Mickelson
+12 Louis Oosthuizen

Best prices

2-7 J Spieth, 5 M Kuchar, 25 B Koepka, 45 H Matsuyama, 50 B Grace, 66 D Johnson, 80 H Stenson, 100 A Connelly, R McIlroy, 150 R Cabrera-Bello, 300 bar

Final-round advice

Jordan Spieth has one hand on the Claret Jug and the chasing pack need to shoot the lights out at Royal Birkdale to overtake the Texan.

Those is third spot and behind probably need to reproduce something similar to the round that Branden Grace delivered on Saturday – a flurry of birdies will almost certainly be required to trouble the leader.

Matt Kuchar is obviously close enough to beat Spieth with something less spectacular, but the mild-mannered 39-year-old typically disappoints when in contention for Major titles. It is questionable whether Kuchar possesses the self-belief to overcome such a fearsome opponent to make his Major breakthrough.

Spieth's pursuers will be clinging on to the fact he blew a five-shot lead on the back-nine of last year's Masters. Golf is a sport prone to final-day drama. Spieth never looked entirely comfortable with his game at Augusta that week though. In contrast, he has been extremely content with his form at Birkdale.

A Spieth implosion is difficult to imagine, although the weather gods do not seem set to give him an easy ride. There should be no wind for the early starters, but a stiff breeze for Spieth and the later groups. There will be scope for cardbusters.

Only those with deep pockets can consider Spieth at 2-7 at this stage. It looks the right price, with Kuchar at 5-1 an unappealing option. The best value outright runner, though, is arguably Brooks Koepka at 25-1, with each-way terms of a quarter the odds the first two.

Koepka will have a soft course to attack today thanks to a morning deluge. He putted better in round three, making six birdies, suffering four bogeys due to loose shots. The US Open champion is obviously full of confidence and vigour in the wake of his Major breakthrough last month and will be approaching round four with some optimism about hunting down Spieth.

Koepka closed the US Open with a magnificent five-under-par 67 to destroy the field by four shots. He will almost certainly need to go lower than that to catch Spieth, but is an explosive player capable of rattling off a succession of birdies.

It is forecast to be windiest of all for the closing stages of the event. Koepka's extra strength should help him outscore Spieth over the final stretch, the par-fives of 15 and 17, and the long par-four 18th. If Koepka can give himself a squeak standing on the 15th tee, a late turnaround may be possible. And if he could somehow get into a playoff, Koepka would become favourite, with the final four holes (including the two par-fives) used to determine the champion.

Spieth is obviously by far the most likely winner, but Koepka looks over-priced for a Sunday comeback, with the each-way terms affording a decent return if he finishes runner-up.

The top-ten market is also worth an interest, with Thomas Pieters and Rickie Fowler capable of finishing strongly.

The weather forecast gives Pieters an excellent chance of moving up from 40th position on the leaderboard. He can complete the vast majority of his round in calm conditions on a soft course, before the breeze picks up for the later starters. The power-packed Belgian is world-class, likes links golf and found form in a round-three 68 which included five birdies.

Fowler is out later and will have some breeze to tackle, but that will not worry this links natural. He has played superbly for the most part this week and not enjoyed much luck. Expect his third-round 67 to be followed by something lower and for the consistent Fowler to move from 15th position into the top ten.

Bubba Watson has seemed increasingly tetchy and disinterested as this Open has worn on and the moody left-hander may not apply himself properly in round four. Pieters looks a strong bet for their 11.10am twoball.

Outright recommendations
B Koepka
1pt each-way 25-1 bet365, SkyBet

T Pieters top-ten finish
1pt 30-1 Betfair, Power

R Fowler top-ten finish
1pt 15-8 Betfair, Power

Twoball recommendation
T Pieters
1pt 10-11 Betfred, Coral