Steve Palmer's Bermuda Championship final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the Bermuda Championship

Sky Sports Golf, 4pm Sunday

Best bets

Alex Noren-Camilo Villegas dual forecast
2pts 17-4 bet365

Lucas Herbert to win 12.40pm threeball
2pts 6-4 Betfair, Power

Story so far

Alex Noren carded a bogey-free Saturday 67 to remain atop the Bermuda Championship leaderboard through three rounds at Port Royal Golf Club.

Noren, who started the week with a spectacular 61, is one-shot clear going into the final round. The pre-tournament 22-1 chance is 6-4 with 18 holes to play.

Camilo Villegas is alone in second place, going into Sunday of a PGA Tour event with a massive winning opportunity for the second week running. Villegas finished tied second in the World Wide Technology Championship in Mexico last week, bursting into life after a long spell in the doldrums.

Villegas is a general 4-1 for his first victory since 2014. He won the BMW Championship and the Tour Championship when at the peak of his powers in 2008. Noren and Villegas tee off in the final threeball at 1.50pm UK and Ireland time, with Matti Schmid for company.

Bermuda Championship leaderboard

-19 Alex Noren
-18 Camilo Villegas
-17 Matti Schmid, Ryan Moore
-16 Stewart Cink
-15 Vince Whaley, Carl Yuan, Kramer Hickok, Adam Scott, Satoshi Kodaira

Best odds for the Bermuda Championship

6-4 A Noren, 4 C Villegas, 7 M Schmid, 15-2 R Moore, 16 A Scott, 20 S Cink, 33 V Whaley, 35 K Hickok, 40 C Yuan, 50 T Pendrith, S Kodaira, 66 bar

Bermuda Championship final-round predictions

PGA Tour chiefs are hoping to get this tournament finished before heavy rain and lightning is scheduled to arrive on Bermuda – the final threeball tees off at 9.50am local time – but the players appear unlikely to escape strong winds.

A breezy denouement is anticipated at Port Royal and birdies will probably be less plentiful than they have been over the previous three days of action. Pars will become a friend, certainly to the leading groups.

Alex Noren deserves short-price favouritism given he is a ten-time DP World Tour champion who has held his nerve to win bigger tournaments than this – the 2017 BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth, for example.

The psychological challenge for Noren is that he has never won on the PGA Tour – a long-held mission – and success at Port Royal would mean a huge amount to a 41-year-old who has had to deal with more than his fair share of injuries.

The Florida-based Swede has come close – a playoff defeat to Jason Day in the 2018 Farmers Insurance Open was Noren's most agonising setback. Noren needed a birdie at the par-five 18th to win on the 72nd hole, but playing partner JB Holmes took an age to hit his shots and an exasperated Noren could only par. Noren was two over par for the back nine that day, carding a 73.

Noren enjoys playing in the wind and 6-4 seems a fair price that he gets the job done this time. That said, Camilo Villegas is also a master of handling a breeze and the Colombian has got his tail up after banking a cheque for $729,800 last Sunday.

Given the likely conditions, the rough round the edges of German youngster Matti Schmid, and how rarely Ryan Moore posts top-ten finishes these days, the most sensible punting tactic going into Sunday may be to have the Noren-Villegas dual forecast.

With the birdies drying up, it is not difficult to imagine the leading duo turning this event into a duel, exhibiting their range of low, controlled shots under the wind. Villegas showed he can handle his return as a PGA Tour contender when staying in the thick of things throughout in Mexico last Sunday.

Lucas Herbert will be looking forward to the Sunday challenge and the Australian appeals for the 12.40pm (UK) threeball. Herbert, a master in the wind who won this tournament on a windswept Port Royal two years ago, played poorly on Friday this week but recovered with a Saturday 64. Expect a strong finish and for the 2021 champion to outscore Peter Malnati and Mark Hubbard in the process.

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