Steve Palmer's Ras al Khaimah Championship final-round tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Main Event and Golf, 8.30am Sunday

Best bets

Nicolai Hojgaard to win 8.20am twoball (10-11), Rasmus Hojgaard to win 8.40am twoball (8-13)
3pts double Betfair, Power

Daniel Hillier top rest of the world
1pt 25-1 bet365

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Story so far

Zander Lombard leads the Ras al Khaimah Championship by a shot going into the final round at Al Hamra after firing a Saturday 63.

The South African, a DP World Tour maiden who started the week 125-1, has shortened to 9-4 after his bogey-free third round. Lombard is not favourite, though, with Rasmus Hojgaard lurking over his shoulder.

Hojgaard sliced his approach into water at the 18th hole, but managed to salvage a par, and the pre-tournament 18-1 chance is no bigger than 7-4 with 18 holes to play. His twin brother, Nicolai, is tied for fifth place, four shots off the pace.

Ryan Fox started the event as market leader, but the New Zealander is tied for 13th place, seven shots adrift. The final twoball of Lombard and Rasmus Hojgaard is scheduled to tee off at 8.40am UK and Ireland time. After a calm morning, some gentle breeze is forecast for the afternoon.

Leaderboard
-16 Zander Lombard
-15 Rasmus Hojgaard
-14 Daniel Gavins
-13 Matthieu Pavon
-12 Alexander Bjork, Nicolai Hojgaard
-11 David Law, Rikuya Hoshino, Julien Guerrier, Adri Arnaus

Best prices
7-4 R Hojgaard, 9-4 Z Lombard, 9 D Gavins, 12 M Pavon, N Hojgaard, 22 A Bjork, 28 A Arnaus, 50 bar

Final-round preview

Zander Lombard has a history of squandering winning opportunities on the DP World Tour and the Ras al Khaimah Championship may have a vulnerable leader.

Lombard was superb on Saturday, but Sunday brings fresh challenges, and the 28-year-old maiden may not be able to repel his pursuers. Wild shots and poor putting tend to unravel Lombard's title tilts, so 9-4 makes no appeal.

Adri Arnaus is tied for seventh place, five shots behind, and capable of a finishing flourish. It would be no surprise to see the Spaniard go close to victory, but a more likely scenario is that this tournament turns into the Hojgaard show. Rasmus and Nicolai appear the players for punters to concentrate on.

Rasmus, working his way back to top form in the wake of early-year injury issues, is fresh for the fight having missed the fortnight of action in Abu Dhabi which started 2023 on the DP World Tour. Rasmus returned with 20th place in Dubai last week and has been impressive in Ras al Khaimah.

There is a maturity about the Hojgaards these days, highlighted by the way Rasmus coolly carded a par after finding water at the 18th in round three, and they appear to be going from strength to strength. Nicolai also managed to be smiling and relaxed in his post-round interview, despite missing tiny putts at the 14th and 16th. They are young, but assured, and could be ready to dominate the final day at Al Hamra.

Nicolai was Racing Post Sport's 22-1 pre-tournament recommendation going into his title defence – and the Danish dude can still have high hopes from four shots behind. Not only has he been carrying an ice-cold putter all week, but has also been dealing with illness too, having picked up a stomach bug.

Nicolai reported feeling a bit better on Saturday, so another night's sleep may put the 21-year-old fully fit for the finale, and any slight warming of his putter would probably give him a chance of a second Ras success. He has started this year in breathtaking ball-striking form and if his flat-stick behaves on Sunday, a round in the low-60s seems on the cards.

Rasmus has a three-shot cushion on his brethren, though, so obviously has a greater chance of victory. If Rasmus makes a slow start to round four, viewers could be treated to a fascinating tussle between the twins.

Punters with a significant outright bet on one Hojgaard may want to back the other, while anyone who can access a double-figure dual-forecast price is advised to take it.

Everyone else can make a beeline for the Hojgaard twoball double, which pays more than 2-1 at best prices. Nicolai can be fancied to outgun Swedish plodder Alexander Bjork in the 8.20am match, while Rasmus can boss the final pairing. Rasmus has three DP World Tour titles to his name, while Lombard is a nervous maiden who could easily follow his Saturday 63 with a Sunday 73.

Lombard has made a habit of destroying his scorecard from promising positions in the past. He clearly likes this course, highlighted by third place in last year's Ras al Khaimah Classic, but his propensity for spectacular meltdowns is not reflected in odds of 1-8 in bet365's top rest of the world market.

Daniel Hillier, one of the most promising youngsters on the circuit, should enjoy his Sunday pairing with fellow Kiwi Ryan Fox. Hillier appeals at 25-1 as somebody who could take advantage of any weakness from Lombard in the top ROW market.

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