Steve Palmer's Kenya Open final-round tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 9am Sunday

Best bets

Tom McKibbin to win 8.10am threeball
2pts 23-20 bet365

Jayden Schaper top Rest of the World
1pt 13-10 bet365

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Story so far

Jorge Campillo finished his third round with four consecutive birdies to rocket to the top of the Kenya Open leaderboard at Muthaiga Golf Club.

Campillo, a pre-tournament 33-1 chance, is 2-1 favourite with 18 holes to play in the low-grade DP World Tour event. The 36-year-old Spaniard is a two-time DPWT champion, with his last success coming almost exactly three years ago in the Qatar Masters.

Robert MacIntyre is alone in second place after his second consecutive round of 65. The Scottish left-hander, favourite in most opening shows before drifting in the betting due to lack of punting support, is one shot behind Campillo.

South African youngster Jayden Schaper is tied for third spot, two off the pace, seeking his DPWT breakthrough. The 21-year-old was two under par for his final three holes of round three, claiming a place in the penultimate threeball for Sunday's denouement.

Leaderboard
-13 Jorge Campillo
-12 Robert MacIntyre
-11 Masahiro Kawamura, Jayden Schaper
-10 Santiago Tarrio
-9 JC Ritchie, John Catlin, Lukas Nemecz, Matthew Jordan, Borja Virto, Ryo Hisatsune

Best prices
2 J Campillo, 5-2 R MacIntyre, 13-2 J Schaper, 8 M Kawamura, 20 S Tarrio, 33 M Jordan, R Hisatsune, 40 bar

Final-round preview

A sunny, warm, breezy final day is forecast for Muthaiga GC, so birdies seem unlikely to come easy on this tight, fiddly, fast-running track, and the champion will probably be the one who does the best job of keeping his ball in play.

Jorge Campillo topped the driving accuracy and greens-in-regulation statistics for round three, hitting the leaderboard summit, but the mild-mannered Caceres man has never been the most reliable in contention. Campillo bounced back to form with fourth place in the Indian Open last time out, carrying that sparkle to Kenya, but 2-1 can be left alone about the leader with more talented sorts on his tail.

Robert MacIntyre will be thrilled to finally see some results from a month trekking around the DP World Tour producing mediocre golf. A missed cut in the Singapore Classic was followed by 57th in Thailand and 37th in India. The Scot and his army of devotees expect better – and he has given himself a great chance of claiming a third DPWT title on Sunday.

MacIntyre, hunting a place in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, knows that success in Kenya could set up opportunities in the most prestigious spring events. The 26-year-old left-hander, finally finding some form with putter in hand, will expect to follow back-to-back 65s with something positive on Sunday.

MacIntyre at 5-2 appeals more than 2-1 Campillo, but the 13-2 about Jayden Schaper is the suggestion for punters yet to get involved. Schaper kept himself in the thick of things with birdies at the 16th and 17th in round three, looking every inch a superstar in the making.

Schaper, Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament headline selection at 40-1, is extremely comfortable performing in his home continent and was finding fairways and greens with ease in round three. This precise operator is ideally suited to Muthaiga and a breezy finale would hold no fears for him. Schaper has been in rock-solid form for months and two shots behind, in the penultimate group, seems an ideal spot for him to pounce for a DPWT breakthrough.

Schaper showed a maturity beyond his years in round three, staying patient despite putts not dropping, and that bodes well for Sunday. He has not holed much this week – Friday was the only day he got his fair share – and that speaks volumes for how well he is hitting his ball.

The early stages of the final round will probably be crucial. MacIntyre, knowing that WGC-Match Play and Masters spots may be on the line, could easily boil over with frustration if he gets off to a slow start. He demands high standards from himself and has a short fuse.

Schaper, who did not even know he was in this tournament until an invite from sponsors arrived last Sunday, seems in a great place mentally – enjoying the opportunity and the experience. He will be playing on the DPWT in his homeland next week (SDC Championship) whatever happens in Kenya and can approach Sunday at Muthaiga in positive mood.

Schaper to edge MacIntyre is the forecast, with Tom McKibbin recommended for threeball punters. McKibbin, like Schaper, seems assured of a bright future. The Northern Irishman has done well on his trips to Africa and will look forward to tackling the forecast breeze. McKibbin can boss Velten Meyer and Nacho Elvira in the 8.10am contest.

Schaper (8.54am) and MacIntyre (9.05am) are the recommendations for threeball punters wishing to play on the final two groups. Schaper can also land top Rest of the World honours – a market in which he is tied for the lead going into round four.

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