Steve Palmer's Indian Open final-round tips and best bets

Where to watch

Sky Sports Golf and Main Event, 7am Sunday

Best bets

Yannik Paul to win Indian Open
4pts 5-6 general

Alex Fitzpatrick top Englishman
2pts Evens BoyleSports

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Story so far

Pre-tournament 20-1 chance Yannik Paul remains on course for a wire-to-wire Indian Open success, but the German's lead has been cut to just one shot.

Paul has been setting the pace ever since carding a Thursday 65 at DLF Country Club's Signature Course – and he went into the weekend with a five-shot advantage. An early Saturday wobble, though, encouraged the chasing pack – he was two over par for round three through three holes – and his compatriot Marcel Siem has crept close.

Paul, 28, won his maiden DP World Tour title in the Mallorca Open last year. Siem has won four times on this circuit, but the 2014 BMW Masters was his last triumph. The 42-year-old won a Challenge Tour event in 2021.

Paul is a shade of odds-on for victory, while Siem can be backed at 21-10. Joost Luiten is alone in third spot, with a three-shot gap to those in fourth, a group headlined by last week's Thailand Classic champion Thorbjorn Olesen. A sunny, warm, calm final day is forecast.

Leaderboard
-11 Yannik Paul
-10 Marcel Siem
-8 Joost Luiten
-5 Veer Ahlawat, Jorge Campillo, Thorbjorn Olesen

Best prices
5-6 Y Paul, 21-10 M Siem, 9-2 J Luiten, 22 T Olesen, 50 J Campillo, 100 bar

Final-round preview

The difficulty of the Signature Course at DLF Country Club has played into the hands of Yannik Paul – a greens-in-regulation machine who has managed to keep large numbers off his scorecard.

Getting through 54 holes with only five bogeys – and nothing worse – is a feather in the cap of Paul on a layout where disaster is lurking around every corner. The German has established himself as one of the most consistent ball-strikers on the circuit and he can be fancied to successfully complete his Indian Open mission on Sunday.

Paul ranked first for greens in regulation in round one, third in round two and second in round three – he has an impressive ability to grind out fairways and greens – and he has dominated this tournament. Putting has always been the issue for Paul – and he has failed to get much to drop over the last two rounds – but long-game class has seen off almost every challenger.

With a six-shot advantage over those in fourth place, Paul will feel he has only Marcel Siem and Joost Luiten left to repel, given how well he has been hitting his ball. If he can stay out of trouble from tee to green, it seems likely the event will become a three-runner race.

It has been an enormous amount of time between drinks for Siem – getting on for a decade since he last lifted DP World Tour silverware – so this vibrant character will be even more pumped than usual. Punters should arguably be siding with the calmer, more robotic German – the steadiness of Paul is preferred to the flair of Siem on this layout.

Paul finished runner-up in last week's Thailand Classic – beaten only by Thorbjorn Olesen after four solid rounds – and is full of belief.

Joost Luiten is well suited to the DLF and could emerge as the main threat to Paul, but the Dutchman lost his DP World Tour card last year, so has an added level of pressure with which to deal.

The likes of Pablo Larrazabal, Jazz Janewattananond, Kazuki Higa and Olesen seem likely to finish with a flourish, but Paul can be fancied to leave them all playing for second place. Paul first, Luiten second, Siem third is the prediction.

Alex Fitzpatrick is busy proving that the Fitzpatrick family is blessed with two great golfers. Alex has long been touted as another star in the making and his performance over the last two days of the Indian Open will have encouraged his fans. The Yorkshireman can defend his lead in the top Englishman market, with weak opposition chasing.

The final threeball of Paul, Siem and Luiten is scheduled to tee off 11.25am local time (5.55am UK and Ireland) on Sunday.

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