Steve Palmer's European Masters final-round golf betting tips and predictions

Where to watch the European Masters

Sky Sports Golf, 11.30am Sunday

Best bets

Eddie Pepperell to win 11.45am twoball
3pts Evens bet365

Alexander Bjork without Matt Fitzpatrick, Ludvig Aberg, Nicolai Hojgaard, Adrian Meronk and Matt Wallace
2pts 21-10 BoyleSports

Story so far

Matt Fitzpatrick has justified pre-tournament favouritism through three rounds of the European Masters at Crans-sur-Sierre – the ante-post 8-1 chance forging a two-shot lead in Switzerland.

Fitzpatrick is looking to complete a European Masters hat-trick, having taken the title in 2017 and 2018, and rounds of 63, 65 and 67 have put the Sheffield man in pole position.

A double-bogey at the 13th hole on Saturday threatened to derail Fitzpatrick's challenge, but he immediately recovered with back-to-back birdies at 14 and 15. His brother Alex is also in contention, sharing fifth place, three shots behind Matt.

The eldest Fitzpatrick is a best-price 21-20 to successfully convert his lead into victory. Ludvig Aberg, who turned professional in the summer after a magnificent amateur career, is tied for second place with his fellow Swede Alexander Bjork. Aberg is 11-2 for a maiden triumph.

European Masters leaderboard

-15 Matt Fitzpatrick
-13 Connor Syme, Alexander Bjork, Ludvig Aberg
-12 Alex Fitzpatrick, Nicolai Hojgaard
-11 Kalle Samooja, Oliver Bekker, Eddie Pepperell, Renato Paratore, Romain Langasque

Best odds for the European Masters

21-20 Matt Fitzpatrick, 11-2 L Aberg, 7 A Bjork, 11 N Hojgaard, 12 C Syme, 20 A Fitzpatrick, 40 R Langasque, 50 E Pepperell, 60 K Samooja, 70 R Paratore, 80 bar

European Masters final-round predictions

Matt Fitzpatrick and Connor Syme, who shares second place at 13 under par, are scheduled to tee off at 12.25pm UK and Ireland time in the final twoball of the European Masters.

Fitzpatrick has done superbly to reach 15 under par after three weeks competing in the FedEx Cup playoffs. The sharp downgrade has overcome any mental fatigue up to this point, but he has been two shots worse each day, and a Sunday 69 (if that pattern continued) would probably not be enough to get the job done.

Some bookmakers have chalked Fitzpatrick up at odds-on for victory, while others are dangling odds-against. A fraction of odds-against is arguably the correct price, given the quality of those just behind.

Racing Post Sport's pre-tournament 25-1 recommendation, Alexander Bjork, should enjoy heading into the final round lurking over Fitzpatrick's shoulder. Two shots behind, with a spot in the penultimate twoball, seems ideal for Bjork to relax into the task of landing a long overdue second DP World Tour title.

Bjork is one of the most consistent players on the circuit, but the 2018 China Open has been his only victory, plenty of chances having been spurned. Emerging triumphant from this leaderboard would be an heroic effort, but trailing a Major champion takes some pressure off in a curious way. There will be no weight of expectation weighing Bjork down this time.

The penultimate twoball, rather than his playing partner Syme, is arguably where Matt Fitzpatrick should be looking for his main title threat. Hopes are high that Bjork can stay calm enough to post a competitive total, while Ludvig Aberg is capable of anything.

Aberg, who dominated the Stateside college scene before turning pro, closed round three with a trio of birdies and it seems inevitable that he starts lifting trophies soon. Crans-sur-Sierre does not appear an ideal layout for him to show off his power-packed game, but he has the ability to win anywhere.

Matt Fitzpatrick, Bjork and Aberg could be set to battle for Crans glory down the stretch. There is no urge to have any further outright interest, with hopes high that Bjork can cement his position in the places and challenge the bigger names for the title.

BoyleSports have an interesting outright market without Matt Fitzpatrick, Aberg, Nicolai Hojgaard, Adrian Meronk or Matt Wallace. Bjork can be backed at a perfectly fair 21-10 in that market, while twoball punters are pointed towards Eddie Pepperell, who tees off with Renato Paratore in the 11.45am (UK and Ireland time) group.

Pepperell has been showing signs of life lately and Crans plays to his strengths. He has been accurate off the tee all week, able to leave his troublesome driver in the bag, and his putter was purring in rounds one and three.

Paratore can be one of the wildest players on the circuit and the ultra-attacking Italian can quickly come unstuck at Crans. Pepperell should be odds-on given his third-place finish in the ISPS Handa World Invitational earlier this month.

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport