3M Open: Steve Palmer's third-round analysis and final-round advice

Sky Sports Golf, 6pm Sunday

Story so far
The inaugural 3M Open has showcased the young guns of the US Tour this week, with Matt Wolff and Collin Morikawa among those flourishing at TPC Twin Cities, but Bryson DeChambeau has managed to retain favouritism through another round.

DeChambeau took control after a second-round 62 and went into round three odds-on for victory, two shots clear, but a sluggish Saturday effort left him tied for the lead with Wolff and Morikawa at 15 under par.

DeChambeau was extremely fortunate at the final hole after his hooked drive found a lie deep in the rough. The Californian was handed a remarkable free drop, which allowed him to massively improve his lie and pump his ball into a greenside bunker on the par-five. He made birdie from there to regain a share of the lead.

DeChambeau is 11-4 favourite, with Morikawa at 11-2 and Wolff at 7-1, but it is far from a three-runner race, with 26 players at ten under par or better.

Leaderboard
-15 Matt Wolff, Collin Morikawa, Bryson DeChambeau
-14 Wyndham Clark, Adam Hadwin
-13 Hideki Matsuyama, Charles Howell, Troy Merritt
-12 Joaquin Niemann, Dylan Frittelli, Roger Sloan, Arjun Atwal, Scott Brown, Scott Piercy

Best prices
11-4 B DeChambeau, 11-2 C Morikawa, 7 M Wolff, 8 H Matsuyama, 9 A Hadwin, 11 W Clark, 18 C Howell, 25 J Niemann, 28 T Merritt, 33 S Piercy, 50 D Frittelli, 66 S Brown, R Sloan, 80 bar

Final-round advice
Grab your popcorn and settle down this evening for what should be a thrilling final-round shootout in Minnesota.

Matt Wolff and Collin Morikawa, two of the most promising youngsters on the planet, have given themselves a chance of a US Tour breakthrough in the formative stages of their pro careers. They grew up competing in the same area of California, but they approach the game in entirely different styles, and their final twoball at 7pm UK and Ireland time is a fascinating one.

Wolff is an ultra-attacking powerhouse who can rival Cameron Champ in a long-drive contest, while Morikawa is a cool, calculated character, who plots his way along a course without making many mistakes.

With a calm, sunny day forecast for round four, Wolff has the conditions to be gung-ho, and it is a surprise to see any difference between him and his pal Morikawa in the betting. The more conventional swing of Morikawa, allied to his assurance in interviews, has clearly impressed the layers, and he is clearly a class act. But Wolff is a beast who will fully expect to beat Morikawa and the rest today.

There was a fair amount of frost on the handshakes from Adam Hadwin and Scott Piercy towards Bryson DeChambeau on the 18th green after round three, probably due to his free drop on that hole being such an obvious twisting of the rulebook. The improving of his lie and the closing birdie means DeChambeau got back in a position he relishes. This is the fourth time DeChambeau has led or co-led on the US Tour after three rounds, and he has won on the previous three occasions.

There was a lot to dislike about DeChambeau's Saturday round, though, and the favourite looks vulnerable.

Wolff is the biggest price of the front three and the most attractive betting proposition of that trio, but in-running punters should consider the even juicier offers about the pair sharing fourth place. Wyndham Clark and Adam Hadwin are only one shot behind and extremely dangerous.

Clark at 11-1 and Hadwin at 9-1 are both excellent options. Clark is 37 under par for his last 13 rounds on the US Tour, finding form at the perfect time for a course which is ideal for him. That comfort at TPC Twin Cities is bolstered by the fact his caddie is from the area, with great knowledge of the layout.

Clark, a hugely promising youngster getting far less attention than Wolff and Co, is the recommended outright bet for anyone yet to get involved. Hadwin, a cool customer who has won a US Tour title, carded a round of 59, and has performed well in a Presidents Cup, is a strong alternative.

Clark was the Racing Post Sport headline selection at 150-1, while Hadwin was next-best at 55-1, so those on at the healthy pre-tournament prices need not get further involved. The current 11-1 and 9-1 is fair, though, for aggressive punters eager to press-up.

Final-round twoball punters are pointed towards Wolff, purely on grounds of price. This is a 50-50 contest at best – and if you asked the pair to price the match up themselves, they may both give Wolff the edge, given how spectacular he has been at college level.

Clark, Hadwin, Wolff, Morikawa and DeChambeau can slug out for the title, with Hideki Matsuyama, Charles Howell, Troy Merritt, Joaquin Niemann and Piercy close enough to have a say in matters, too. You will probably need more than one bag of popcorn.

Recommendation
M Wolff to win twoball (7pm UK & IRE time)
1pt 5-4 Betfair

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