Mayo v Tyrone predictions and Gaelic football betting tips: Curse can be lifted

Free football tips, best GAA bets and analysis for the All-Ireland final between Mayo and Tyrone at Croke Park.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Arena/RTE 2, 5pm Saturday

Best bets

Mayo -1
3pts 6-5 Betfair, Paddy Power

Mayo to win and over 2.5 goals
2pts 3-1 Paddy Power

Over 37.5 points
3pts 10-11 bet365

Over 3.5 goals
1pt 3-1 Boylesports

First half to be highest scoring
4pts 11-10 Betfair, Paddy Power

P Durcan to score over 1.5 points
2pts 13-8 Boylesports

P Durcan RTE Man of the Match
1pt 16-1 Boylesports

Match preview

It could all come down to who is most comfortable in chaos and that is almost certainly Mayo. So, after enough heartache to fill a full series of any soap opera, their 70-year wait for an All-Ireland title can finally come to an end at Croke Park on Saturday.

It is a novel final pairing, an unconventional decider between two teams who do things their own way. Mayo look best equipped to deal with the sort of battle that looks in store, especially with Oisin Mullin and Eoghan McLaughlin set to win their fitness battles.

Kerry were like rabbits in headlights for long periods of the second All-Ireland semi-final but James Horan will expect the unexpected and will be far more streetwise about what Tyrone bring to the table.

This is Mayo's fourth time final since 2016 but on each of the last three occasions they have faced a Dublin outfit who were physically, mentally and tactically superior.

That is certainly not the case this time and Tyrone seem just the sort of side who will bring out the best in Mayo.

Tyrone had nine different scorers against Kerry, including their goalkeeper and four of their six starting defenders. In contrast, David Clifford and Sean O'Shea contributed 0-16 of the Kingdom's final tally

At various stages of that shock semi-final success, Padraig Hamsey, Ronan McNamee, Frank Burns, Peter Harte, Michael McKernan and Conor Meyler found themselves at the end of attacks and that stumped Kerry. They didn't know what to do tactically to curb the influence of Tyrone's rearguard unit.

The big difference is that Mayo are nothing like Kerry. If Tyrone played a traditional 15-on-15 style with players holding their starting positions, it would be Peter Keane preparing for an All-Ireland final rather than Fergal Logan and Brian Dooher.

Like Tyrone, Mayo needed extra-time to book their place in the final and showed impressive tenacity in dismantling the Dubs. To come from 0-10 to 0-4 down at half-time against arguably the best side in the history of the game takes some doing.

Lee Keegan looked as good as ever, and they were able to cope with the absence of arguably their best defender in Mullen. They have been coping all year without Cillian O'Connor - the top-scorer in the history of Mayo football.

Tommy Conroy and Ryan O'Donoghue have come of age and, if Horan can get a 70-minute shift out of Aidan O'Shea, either at midfield or centre-forward, Sam Maguire could be Mayo's to take home.

The news coming from the Mayo camp this week seems to suggest Mullin and McLaughlin have been making giant strides in their recovery process. Their presence adds pace and penetration to the Mayo defence.

One thing that has gone unnoticed this year is Rob Hennelly's influence. The Mayo goalkeeper has managed to get 90 per cent of his kickouts away to teammates in the championship so far, compared to Niall Morgan's 78 per cent success rate for Tyrone.

A staggering 7-46 of Mayo's scores this season have come directly from his kickouts. Their strategy is working better than Tyrone's.

Padraig O'Hora has been exceptional all season, as have Stephen Coen and Keegan, so do not expect Tyrone to score 2-9 from turnovers on the counter attack like they did against Kerry.

Mayo have played the game of risk and reward particularly well this season, generously allowing defenders to gallop forward in numbers and that was very noticeable in the second half of their win over Dublin and again in extra-time.

Only once since 2015 have there been more than two goals scored in an All-Ireland final but that trend looks set to be altered here.

Mayo could not find the net against Dublin but they scored ten goals on their way to winning Connacht and the way they attack in numbers could create opportunities when it matters most.

Tyrone were clinical on the counter against Kerry too and odds of 3-1 about four or more goals in the game catch the eye.

The points spread has been set at 37.5 points but that looks low. The last time Tyrone reached an All-Ireland final there were 40 points scored (2-17 to 1-14) in 2018 and it would come as no surprise if that scoreline is surpassed here.

This is Mayo's time - the promised land is in sight. The door can finally open in 2021, 70 years after their last visit.

Other Markets

You can get a shade of odds-against about the first half being the highest scoring half in the All-Ireland final and that looks the best bet on the entire coupon.

There have been eight All-Ireland finals since 2015, including two replays, and only two of those have had more scores in the second half. Five have had more scores in the opening period and the other one was a draw.

In Dublin's 2-14 to 0-15 win over Mayo last year, 22 of the 35 points came in the first half (2-6 to 0-10). In 2019, the drawn match between Kerry and Dublin saw 20 of 38 points arrive before the interval, while 20 of 36 came before the break in the replay.

The way the game has gone, if either side is able to rack up a decent lead going into the final ten minutes, possession becomes as important as scores. Top teams hold on to what they have when it gets to the closing stages of big games so do not expect that to change here.

Mayo were obviously much better in the second half of their victory over Dublin and in the Connacht decider against Galway but they cannot afford a slow start this time so expect Horan to have them blasting from the traps.

Aidan O'Shea is a strong favourite in the RTE Man of the Match market but doesn't look value at a single-figure price.

Paddy Durcan is double his price at 16-1 and that is worth a nibble. The likelihood is that he will find himself in scoring positions throughout the game and if he can kick two or three points the award could be his.

He got on the scoresheet against Sligo and Galway in this campaign and his ability to hit the target under pressure could play a big part in a Mayo victory.

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