Gaelic Football: Saturday's Super 8 betting preview, tip & TV details

Mayo v Donegal
MacHale Park
Sky Sports Arena, 6pm Saturday

Those who watched the double-header at Croke Park will know that Donegal's epic draw with Kerry was a much higher-quality encounter than the clash between Mayo and Meath beforehand.

Yet people are predicting another great escape from Mayo. Home advantage is not as much of a bonus as you might think when it comes to Mayo as their recent record at Castlebar is actually quite poor and it is hard to believe their key players returning from injury will return to peak form straight away.

Mayo have been pretty awful in the championship and you could argue their best display was in defeat against Roscommon. They looked lethargic for long periods against Meath and there is a worrying lack of pace in their attacking unit.

Donegal's form is much stronger than Mayo's. They are Ulster champions and fringe players such as Oisin Gallan really stood up and were counted in the closing stages against Kerry.

Injuries to key players is a worry for Donegal and there are serious concerns about Paddy McBrearty who picked up a hamstring injury in the closing stages against Kerry. His absence would leave a big hole in the Donegal full-forward line but they have been coping well with injuries to big players all summer and can do so again.

Donegal are adaptable. They can alter their style to suit the type of game they are in and look to have enough experience to get over the line in Castlebar and book their ticket to the All-Ireland semi-final.

Sometimes it is best to keep things simple. Mayo were destroyed by Kerry and Donegal drew with Kerry.

Donegal have kept two clean sheet in their five championship outings and odds of 3-1 about them winning without conceding a goal are attractive.

With so much at stake, this could be cagey in the opening exchanges and scores could be scarcer than expected.

Recommendations
Donegal to win without conceding a goal
2pts 3-1 BoyleSports
Under 38.5 points
2pts 10-11 Ladbrokes

Meath v Kerry
Pairc Tailteann
Sky Sports Action, 6pm Saturday

Meath could be in trouble when Kerry visit Pairc Tailteann on Saturday. The home side have nothing to play for but pride and they face a Kerry side gunning for the All-Ireland semi-final. It could get ugly for the hosts.

Michael Newman is a major injury doubt and he has been the focal point of Meath's attack all season. Without him, the Royals are lacking a natural target man in the full-forward line and a reliable free-taker.

There could be lots of changes to Andy McEntee's starting 15 given so many underperformed in the second-half of their heavy loss to Mayo. But August is not the time for wholesale changes and a settled Kerry side could expose serious weakness in Meath.

McEntee will urge his side to put up a big performance for the fans and to end the year in style but, when you have absolutely nothing to play for it can be hard for players to be fully motivated. If Kerry start well, as they have been doing of late, it could be a long night for the hosts. There is a strong chance the visitors could run riot with lots of competition for places.

Meath have given so much to the Super 8s and got so little. They have led midway through the second half in both their outings but have suffered wide-margin losses nonetheless and Kerry could pull away in the closing stages, just as Donegal and Mayo did.
Kerry's attack oozles class and David Clifford, Paul Geaney and Stephen O'Brien have been outstanding in recent outings.

O'Brien, in particular, has caught my eye and his direct running could hurt Meath. With the top-class Seamus Lavin likely to pick up David Clifford and Conor McGill expected to get up close and personal with Paul Geaney, O'Brien could be the man to lead the Kerry charge this time and the 8-1 about him being named man of the match on Sky Sports looks too big.

It should be a high-scoring affair and backing over 38.5 match points looks a safe play.

Recommendations
Kerry -7
3pts Evs Betway
Over 38.5 points
2pts 5-6 Paddy Power
Stephen O'Brien man of the match
1pt 8-1 Paddy Power

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