Gaelic football: David Jennings' Saturday All-Ireland Super 8s betting preview

Dublin v Roscommon Croke Park
Sky Sports, 7pm Saturday

Anthony Cunningham is a shrewd operator and he manages a Roscommon side who have a solid defensive structure, so do not expect a scoring fest when the Connacht champions face the All-Ireland champions at Croke Park.

Cork gave Dublin no respect and played the way they would play against any other side. They kicked wonderful scores and hurt Dublin at various stages. But their reward for such a superb display was a 13-point drubbing. Do not expect Roscommon to fall into the same trap.

Roscommon don't concede many goals under Cunningham. They kept three clean sheets on their way through Connacht and Tyrone didn't find the net against them either. They tend to sacrifice simple scores in order to keep their net guarded and Dublin may not create as many goal-scoring chances as they did against Cork.

Roscommon's average concession in the 2019 championship is just 14.5 points per game. They have yet to play a side like Dublin but it hard to see that solid structure they have worked so hard to create completely breaking down.

Expect Cunningam to adopt a similar strategy to the one Meath did in the Leinster final against Dublin. The only problem there was that Meath had no natural scoring forward on song. Roscommon have Conor Cox as an outlet and they will keep chipping away with frees.
Conditions are expected to be slippery with showers forecast and we might not see the best of Dublin as a result.

Dublin should win comfortably, but it would be a big surprise if the match contained as many as 44 points. Roscommon have enough experience to keep the score respectable and won't give up.

Recommendations
Under 43.5 points
5pts 5-6 Ladbrokes, Paddy Power

Cork v Tyrone Croke Park
Sky Sports Arena, 4pm Saturday

Cork could still be feeling the effects of the energy they exerted against Dublin at Croke Park last week and a better-conditioned Tyrone side could take full advantage. This could be one-way traffic.

The Rebels could not have done much more against Dublin yet they somehow found themselves six points down at half-time and lost by 13. It was not a fair reflection on their performance. They were just as good as the All-Ireland champions for the best part of an hour but their legs went in the closing stages and they conceded three goals.

The way Dublin played seemed to suit Cork, who were able to attack and play with freedom. It will be a different story against Tyrone whose counter-attacking style has the potential to really hurt them.

There is no way Brian Hurley or Paul Kerrigan will be given as much space to impact proceedings against a defensive unit such as Tyrone's and the Rebels could struggle for scores this time.

Mickey Harte's decision to revert to their old system has paid handsome dividends and Colm Cavanagh is returning to his best form. With Cathal McShane on fire up front, Tyrone now have an outlet and it is hard to see the Rebels posing them too many problems.

Expect a comfortable win for the favourites and they can defy a three-point handicap in style. Indeed, it could be far more straightforward than the betting suggests.

Tyrone kept a clean sheet against Roscommon and they are available at 2-1 to do likewise against Cork, that is worth taking.

The winning margin markets are of interest too. Tyrone's game management is exceptional, as we saw against Roscommon, and if they build up an early lead they can dictate the pace of the game. Expect to see them suck Cork in and spit them out.

The most likely winning margin might prove to be seven, eight or nine points, but also have a saver on ten to 12.

The final bet which appealsis for Mattie Donnelly to score more than Luke Connolly. Croke Park is made for Donnelly and he is expected to get at least three points, a total Connolly will struggle to reach.

Recommendations
Tyrone -3
4pts 4-6 Betfred
No Cork goal
2pts 2-1 BoyleSports
Tyrone to win by seven, eight or nine points
2pts 9-2 general
Tyrone to win by 10, 11 or 12 points
1pt 13-2 general
M Donnelly to score more than L Connolly
2pts Evs Paddy Power