GAA Saturday football tips: Kerry v Dublin, Mayo v Cavan, Fermanagh v Kildare

Kerry v Dublin

TV: Austin Stack Park, RTE2, 7pm Saturday

Dublin were caught cold by Monaghan in round one of the NFL season and a second defeat from three outings in Division 1 could be in store at Austin Stack Park.

Kerry look value to cause an upset, and the 9-5 on offer about the home side leading at half-time is worth taking.

There is no doubting Dublin are worthy favourites for outright league glory and it is hard to envisage any other outcome to the All-Ireland race than them making it five in a row, but Jim Gavin's men are vulnerable away from Croke Park at the moment.

Despite a blistering beginning, which saw them sail into a six-point lead, they were unable to withstand Monaghan's second-half rally and lost 2-13 to 1-13. They didn't deserve any more as the hosts were the better team.

Normal service resumed last Saturday as Dublin sauntered to success over a Galway side missing Damien Comer and a host of regular starters. Dublin could have fielded their second team and still won convincingly.

Kerry dug deep to beat Tyrone and Cavan and their defensive set-up has impressed. They are yet to concede a goal and have coughed up only 0-20 in two games. That’s progress for a side who conceded 1-17 to Monaghan and 2-16 to Kildare in their last Super 8s showdowns in 2018. Keane wants a mean defence.

Sean O'Shea has been sublime, scoring 0-12 in the Cavan win, while Paul Geaney looked sharp against the Breffni boys.

Kerry have a point to prove. Dublin have destroyed them in their recent meetings and they will be eager to change the trend in the meetings of gaelic football's two superpower. There's no better place to do that than their own backyard and they seldom get the chance to joust with Gavin's men at home.

Dublin are always most vulnerable in the early rounds of the league away from Croke Park and Kerry should be supported to be in front at halfway as they can be expected to make the early running.

It is hard to resist them in the double-result market as well given how strongly they saw out the second halves in their first two wins.

Recommendations
Kerry to lead at half-time
2pts 9-5 Betfair, Paddy Power
Kerry-Kerry double result
1pt 6-1 general

Mayo v Cavan

TV: MacHale Park, 7pm Saturday

Mayo have maximum points from their opening two outings in Division 1 and their nine-point thrashing of Tyrone in round two was arguably the best display by any side in any division, but long odds-on quotes look too skimpy about them scoring a third win on the trot.

The most likely outcome is a home win. After all, All-Ireland contenders with maximum points are playing All-Ireland no-hopers with no points. And they are at home.

But it could be dangerous to believe Mayo will replicate their Tyrone display. That performance was pretty much flawless, certainly not in keeping with the first week of February, and asking them to repeat it at this time of year is a bit much.

Cavan could pose Mayo problems. The Breffni boys got within two points of Galway in Salthill and led Kerry at half-time last Sunday only to go down by three points, 0-16 to 0-13.

James Horan is using the game to experiment too. He has handed starts to young Breaffy midfielder Matthew Ruane and Westport corner-forward Colm Moran.

There are five changes in all from the side who played in Omagh as goalkeeper David Clarke, full-back Ger Cafferkey and corner-forward Evan Regan have also earned call-ups.

It may be that class will prevail in the closing stages but Cavan could give Mayo a scare and they make plenty of appeal with a five-point start.

Recommendations
Cavan +5
3pts 6-5 BoyleSports
Cavan to lead at half-time
1pt 11-4 general

Fermanagh v Kildare

TV: Brewster Park, 7pm Saturday

There are a pair of unbeaten records on the line at Brewster Park as Fermanagh welcome Kildare and the home side look to have been underrated by the layers.

There is some 3-1 about Fermanagh winning by two points or more and that looks the best bet.

Fermanagh have drawn both their games, against Cork and Tipperary, but they are notoriously tricky to beat on home soil and Kildare could find the going tough despite some positive signs from their opening two outings.

Expect this to develop into a low-scoring dogfight, and the hosts get the nod to avoid defeat for the third time in Division 2.

Recommendations
Fermanagh -1
1pt 3-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

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