GAA Gaelic football: David Jennings' Sunday All-Ireland Super 8s betting preview

Donegal v Kerry

Croke Park, RTE, 4pm Sunday

Don't expect a repeat of the beautiful spectacle we witnessed at Killarney last Sunday when Kerry meet Donegal in a crunch Super 8 showdown. This could be very different to the way events unfolded last time.

Kerry were sensational in the first half but that was because Mayo let them. They were naive and were punished accordingly. Donegal will do things differently.

David Clifford is a marked man now and Donegal will be well aware of the damage he can do. James O'Donoghue will not be allowed to roam around on his own either and that could be a shock to Kerry's system.

Donegal are versatile and can adapt to whatever style of play they wish. This is one game where it could pay handome dividends to set up defensively and play on the counter-attack.

Kerry will try to kick the ball as much as possible but that will play straight into the hands of Donegal. Peter Keane's starting 15 is more defensively-minded than it was last Sunday so perhaps he is anticipating a dour struggle.

Conditions won't be ideal either with showers forecast so unders could be the way to go in all departments. This is a game where 16 points could be enough to land the spoils and under 40.5 total points looks a safe play. A goal-fest is unlikely so going low in the totals markets appeals.

Donegal showed great character to emerge from their Super 8 showdown with Meath unscathed and that is a trait of the side. They don't panic and stick to the system. They have leaders everywhere, most notably Michael Murphy, and that is something Kerry are lacking in.

Donegal have the potential to frustrate Kerry, as they did to Tyrone, and odds of 11-5 about them winning by two points or more catch the eye.

Recommendations
Donegal -1
2pts 11-5 Betway
Under 40.5 points
4pts 5-6 Paddy Power
No goals
1pt 10-1 Paddy Power
Under 1.5 goals
2pts 11-4 BoyleSports, Ladbrokes
Under 2.5 goals
3pts Evs Paddy Power

Mayo v Meath

Croke Park, RTE, 2pm Sunday

Given how poor Mayo were against Kerry last Sunday and Meath's superb record against them in recent times, it is hard to believe James Horan's charges are such a short price to claim their first success of the Super 8s. The layers may have got this one wrong.

Mayo have been a brilliant and deserve an All-Ireland for all they have given to the game in the last decade, but their performance in Killarney looked like a team on their last legs. They lacked pace in the forward line and carried the ball into contact too often.

Diarmuid O'Connor is a massive loss. His pace and craft would be a huge asset to a Mayo attack which has looked stale of late.

The key thing for Meath is to sort out their own kick-outs. Time and time again, Donegal won possession from Andy Colgan's restarts in Ballybofey and surely Andy McEntee will decide the best option is to launch longer deliveries rather than setting up opposition scores.

If Meath can isolate Bryan Menton with Donal Vaughan, that could be the best avenue to securing possession around the middle and if they can win at least 70 per cent of their own kick-outs they can win this game.

Meath gave Donegal a mighty fright last Sunday. They edged a point in front midway through the second half before Donegal's experience took over and they outscored their visitors by 1-8 to 0-1 in the closing stages.

Cillian O'Sullivan returned to his best and Bryan McMahon also excelled. Their raw pace is a big help at Croke Park and they won't fear Mayo.

McMahon has been one of Meath's unsung heroes. He is lightning quick and he was causing Declan Bonnar's men all sorts of problems before pulling his hamstring against Donegal in the Division 2 league final. He looks great value to win the RTE man of the match award.

Meath have a terrific record in the championship against Mayo, including a shock success in the All-Ireland quarter-final ten years ago and they can repeat the feat. They are overpriced on recent form and odds of 7-2 about them winning by two points or more are too big to turn down.

Also of interest is the 7-1 about the Royals leading at half-time and going on to win the game. They will need to start well and they are very much at home in Croke Park. An upset looks on the cards in the curtain-raiser.

Recommendations
Meath -1
2pts 7-2 BoyleSports, Paddy Power
Meath-Meath double result
1pt 7-1 general
B McMahon man of the match
1pt 22-1 Paddy Power

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