Count on Kildare to stay in touch and make Dubs fight for success

Ulster SFC final: Tyrone v Down
Premier Sports, 2pm Sunday
Leinster SFC final: Kildare v Dublin
Premier Sports, 4pm Sunday

Dublin demolishing Westmeath by 31 points and scoring 4-29 is the best possible thing that could have happened as far as Kildare are concerned.

The All-Ireland champions looked lethargic in their Leinster opener against Carlow but they were awesome upon returning to Croke Park and gave Westmeath a lesson.

Tom Cribbin went man-to-man and tried to beat Dublin playing the best possible style of football they could. How foolish that was with the benefit of hindsight. Do not expect Cian O'Neill to fall into the same trap.

Cian O’Neill’s charges have conceded a total of only 1-20 in their two games and they have a defensive system which works well with Eoin Doyle at centre-back and Tommy Moolick dropping deep from his midfield role.

Dublin will find it hard to break them down and, while their class could tell in the closing stages, Kildare ought to be able to keep within the generous nine-point handicap. Indeed, it would come as no surprise if Dublin need to dig deep and win by only three or four points.

Kildare's recent win over Meath, an emphatic one by a scoreline of 2-16 to 0-13, reads quite well now given that the Royals gave Donegal a mighty fright in their back-door duel. Meath did not look a bad side there and they could have snatched it. Kildare made them look ordinary.

Kildare completed back-to-back promotions in the league by topping Division 2 and they began the Leinster championship in the best possible fashion with landslide victories over Laois (1-21 to 1-7) and the Royals.

Kevin Feely has lorded the aerial exchanges from midfield in both games, while Daniel Flynn topscored against Meath with 1-4. Cathal McNally got 1-3 in the opening 20 minutes of that tie too. Kildare have a balanced side who are more than capable of competing with Dublin.

If Johnny Cooper is out and Cian O'Sullivan is forced to mark, that has the potential to upset Dublin. There are a lot of young stars in the Dublin side and, while every single one of them excelled against Westmeath, it will be tougher to shine on this stage.

The big plus for Dublin is the return to form of Paul Mannion. He was the star of that wide-margin Westmeath win, getting eight points from play and winning the man of the match award.

Dean Rock, Eoghan O’Gara, Ciaran Kilkenny and Kevin McManamon got the goals and there are scores everywhere in the Dublin attack. But the Kildare defence have been impressive in 2017 and it is hard to see the Dubs getting 24 points.

Dublin to score 23 points or fewer, at a shade of odds-against with BoyleSports, looks a great bet as does backing Kildare with a nine-point start.

Down have been the surprise package of Ulster. They looked destined for back-to-back relegations in the league when losing to Fermanagh and Clare in their opening two outings in Division 2 but they got it together afterwards and survived in the division thanks to wins over Meath and Derry and a draw with Cork.

In the Ulster championship they have upset the odds twice with wins over Armagh and Monaghan but this would be the biggest of all the surprises if they manage to emerge victorious.

Tyrone are the defending Ulster champions and they have looked better than ever this year, with impressive wins over Derry (0-22 to 0-11) and Donegal (1-21 to 1-12).

Their counter-attacking style has been easy on the eye and Niall Sludden has been their most impressive attacker. He got four points from play in the win over Donegal and is always dangerous when he gets on the end of attacks.

Tyrone have proved themselves to be genuine All-Ireland contenders and this should be bread and butter for Mickey Hart's men on the way to bigger and better things. They can defy a five-point handicap.

Down managed to score only three goals in their seven outings in Division 2, failing to find the net against Fermanagh, Clare, Kildare and Cork.

They didn’t find the net against Armagh in their Ulster opener either, but 15 points were enough to get them over the line. Their goal against Monaghan came from the penalty spot and it was a dubious decision by the referee.

Tyrone conceded a late goal against Donegal and kept a clean sheet in their win over Derry so the Mourne men could struggle to find the net.

BoyleSports are offering 11-10 about Tyrone keeping a clean sheet and that is certainly worth taking.

Recommendations
Kildare +9
2pts 11-10 BoyleSports
Dublin under 23.5 points
2pts Evs BoyleSports
Tyrone -5
3pts 5-6 bet365
No Down goal
2pts 11-10 BoyleSports