Allianz Football League predictions, odds and betting tips: Back Kerry

Free Gaelic Football tips, best bets and analysis for the 2021 National Football League which starts on Saturday.

Best bets

Kerry to win Division 1
3pts 11-4 Paddy Power

Kerry to finish top of Division 1 South
3pts 13-8 Paddy Power

Roscommon and Armagh to be relegated from Division 1
2pts 16-5 Paddy Power

Down to be promoted from Division 2
1pt 5-1 Paddy Power

Kildare to top Division 2 South
2pts 9-4 Paddy Power

Offaly to top Division 3 South
1pt 3-1 Boylesports

Antrim to be promoted from Division 4
2pts 7-4 Boylesports, Paddy Power

League preview

Thy Kingdom come. The year 2021 could be when Kerry bite back and they look terrific value at 11-4 to be crowned Division 1 league champions for the third time in five years.

Despite their dominance of the championship in the last decade, Dublin have lifted the league title only twice since 2009. That is hard to believe given they won the last six All-Irelands so odds of 11-10 make no appeal whatsoever.

Kerry will be hurting and, if we have learnt anything over the last few decades it is that the Kingdom are at their most dangerous after they have been wounded.

They were at the receiving end of a smash and grab raid by Cork in last year's Munster championship - a last minute goal in extra-time ending their championship campaign despite the fact they dominated the encounter. It was harsh, but they hadn't put the game to bed when they should have.

Listening to an interview with Paul Geaney on Newstalk's Off The Ball programme recently, it was refreshing to hear him so hungry.

His 2020 was a tale of woe because of injury, but if he is back operating at the top of his game alongside David Clifford, there are not too many full-back lines who will cope with their pace and power. Indeed, there is talk of a James O'Donoghue resurgence too now that he is fully free from injury. Imagine those three together? It hasn't happened since the Super 8s in 2019 when they scored 1-10 between them.

Kerry and Dublin are both in Division 1 South - a condensed version of the normal format containing four teams who play each other once with the two two qualifying for the knockout stages - and both should advance to the semi-final without much fuss to meet the top two team in Division 1 North. They are likely to meet in the final too.

The first clash of the big two takes place on Sunday week in Thurles and that is a game Kerry should win. Backing them at 13-8 to top Division 1 South is basically backing them at 13-8 to beat Dublin that day as they should dispose of Galway at home in round one and Roscommon away in round three.

Roscommon and Armagh were both promoted from Division 2 last year but it's hard to envisage either of them keeping their heads above water in Division 1.

They only get three bites of the cherry and Roscommon's come against Dublin, Kerry and Galway. They look doomed.

Armagh have a slightly better chance of survival up against Donegal, Monaghan and Tyrone but it is far from easy to see them getting two wins out of those, or even one.

Paddy Power are offering 16-5 for both Armagh and Roscommon to go straight back down and that looks at least a point bigger than it should be. There is a big gulf in class between the best and the rest in the top tier.

Down could be the surprise package in Division 2. They have made steady progress in the last couple of years and play Meath at home in what could be a crunch clash in Division 2 North. Win that and promotion could become realistic.

Division 2 North looks between Kildare and Cork, and the Lilywhites are overpriced at 9-4 to top the group given they have home advantage against the Rebels in round three. Jack O'Connor knows his troops now and it's about time they began to deliver.

Tipperary are favourites to top Division 3 South, but Offaly take them to Tullamore in the opening round and could get a result there so odds of 3-1 about them topping the group are worth taking.

Finally, there seems to be an overreaction to Mickey Harte taking over in Louth so take the 7-4 for Antrim to be promoted from Division 4.

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