Allianz Football League predictions and football betting tips

Free GAA football tips, best bets and match previews for this weekend's Allianz Football League fixtures.

Best bets

Under 38.5 points in Dublin v Kerry
4pts 5-6 Paddy Power

Under 19.5 Dublin points
3pts 4-5 Paddy Power

No goal and the game to be a draw in Dublin v Kerry
0.5pt 66-1 Paddy Power

Monaghan
1pt 100-30 Betfair, Paddy Power

Tyrone -2
3pts Betway, William Hill

Roscommon-Roscommon double result
1pt 4-1 Betfair, Paddy Power

Down
1pt 2-1 bet365, Boylesports, Betway

Match previews

Donegal v Monaghan

Ballybofey, 5pm Saturday

The gulf in class between Donegal and Monaghan is not fairly reflected in the prices for their showdown at Ballybofey and odds of 100-30 about the visitors are too generous

Armagh caught Monaghan cold in round one, but ace attacker Conor McManus and Darren Hughes were only introduced at half-time, while Kieran Hughes and Fintan Kelly only came on during the second-half. That is a quality quartet for the Farney army to be without for half a game.

If Monaghan can get their match-ups right and turn it into a dogfight, this ought to be much closer than the betting suggests.

Armagh v Tyrone

Athletic Grounds, 7pm Saturday

Armagh are arguably the most adaptable team in the country, with the likes of Aidan Forker seemingly able to play anywhere from full-back to full-forward.

Forker interchanges between positions every couple of minutes, while Stefan Campbell and Rian O'Neill also switch roles at various stages in games. That seemed to stun Monaghan last week, but it won't shock Tyrone.

If ever there was a side capable of stifling that style of play, it is Tyrone. They are adaptable themselves and there is too much of a recency bias in the prices for the clash at the Athletic Grounds.

Tyrone can be backed at evens to win by three points or more and that is worth taking.

Dublin v Kerry

Semple Stadium, 1.45pm Sunday

If you combine Dublin and Kerry's scores in round one it adds up to 5-43. That is a staggering 58 points, so banking that there won't be any more than 38 points scored when the sides meet in the most eagerly-awaited game of the weekend at Semple Stadium might seem strange. But it is, in fact, the bet bet of the entire weekend.

There was a notable change in Kerry's style of play during their landslide 4-21 to 0-11 victory over a Galway side who looked like they have been gathered together on the morning of the game and had never met each other, never mind played with each other, before.

Kerry were bringing bodies back into defence and playing on the counter=attack. That was when they were at their most dangerous. Peter Keane knows that an All-Ireland title can't be won with naive, free-flowing, attacking football. Dublin will destroy you if you leave gaps at the back.

But, at the other end, David Clifford will have Michael Fitzsimons marking him - arguably one of the best man-markers in the modern game. He is too good to be kept scoreless from play but there is little chance of him scoring 3-6. Paudie Clifford and Darragh Moynihan won't get the space they did against Galway either.

Both Dessie Farrell and Keane are too clever to let this turn into a scoring feast and, with the weather impersonating December rather than May this week, scores will be much harder to come by for both sides than they were last weekend.

The best bet on the match coupon is under 38.5 points, but getting on Dublin to score 19 points or fewer might be a shrewd investment as well. This looks a game where 14 or 15 points could be a winning total. Kerry should shade it by the odd point, but it could be very tight.

Indeed, the 66-1 Paddy Power are offering about no goals and a draw is worth a nibble. There were only three goals in total in both All-Ireland finals between the sides in 2019, and Kerry are adopting a more measured approach now too.

Galway v Roscommon

Pearse Stadium, 2pm Sunday

Galway were dreadful last Saturday, making a very good Kerry team look great, and it is fanciful to think they can just turn it on whenever they want.

Roscommon might not be operating at the same level as Kerry but the scoreline flattered Dublin in their league opener and they would have been able to dissect far more positives from the outing than Galway were.

Galway looked devoid of ideas and clueless at the back, so Roscommon could exploit their vulnerability.

Down v Meath

Athletic Grounds, 3.45pm Sunday

Odds-on backers were made to sweat at Pairc Tailteann last Sunday as Meath chiselled out a one-point win over neighbours Westmeath having been four down at one stage in the second half.

It wasn't pretty, and but for the impact of Bryan McMahon, Fionn Reilly and James Conlon from the bench the outcome may have been very different indeed.

Andy McEntee might not know his best team yet and they look far too short for their duel with Down.

The Ulster outfit could not live with Mayo last weekend, but they started badly and could never get into contention. They are better than the bare result suggests and 2-1 looks a big price.

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport

Like us on Facebook RacingPostSport