All Ireland football final: GAA predictions, where to watch and free tips

Free Gaelic football tips, best bets and analysis for Saturday's All-Ireland Senior Football final between Dublin and Mayo

Where to watch

Sky Sports Arena, Sky Sports Mix & RTE2, 5pm Saturday

Best bets

Under 39.5 points
5pts 5-6 Paddy Power

Under 30.5 points
1pt 8-1 Boylesports

Tommy Conroy under 1.5 points
2pts 6-4 Boylesports

Already advised

Ciaran Kilkenny Football of the Year
5pts 2-1 Paddy Power

Raymond Galligan to win an All-Star
1pt 50-1 Paddy Power

Match preview

Dublin have never won an All-Ireland in a year ending in 0 - but that is about the only flaw you can find in the champions as they seek their 30th title at the end of an extraordinary year.

As extraordinary as 2020 has been, Dublin have not flinched. The Dubs machine is in perfect working order and the knockout winter championship has had little impact on their quest for a sixth successive All-Ireland.

They had 11 points to spare over Westmeath, 22 over Laois, 21 over Meath and 15 over Cavan in the semi-final. You can certainly understand why so many will steam into Dessie Farrell's charges to defy a six-point handicap. Recent evidence suggests they should do so comfortably.

The problem is that All-Ireland finals are different. Dublin looked unstoppable last year, but needed a replay to beat Kerry. And, on the three occasions they have met Mayo in the decider in the last decade they have had only a single point to spare.

Dublin are the dominant force of the modern era and have taken seven of the last nine titles, but four of those were by the minimum margin, another was a draw, they had three points to spare over Kerry in 2015 and the only time they have won a final comfortably was in 2018 when they thumped Tyrone by six points.

All-Ireland titles are not easily won, not even by the best team we have ever seen so that is why it's hard to see Dublin destroying Mayo. They should win, and probably will, but asking them to do so by seven points or more might be a bit much.

The flip side of that is can we be ultra-confident that Mayo can keep within six points of Dublin?

Have they the players to go toe to toe with the champions? Have they anybody to curb the influence of Brian Fenton? Have they enough firepower up front to get close to 20 points? They could stay within a six-point handicap but it's touch and go and neither side of the handicap spread appeals.

What certainly does appeal is the total points market. Paddy Power have set the spread at 39.5 points and, for an All-Ireland final a few days before Christmas, that looks much too lofty.

A few days ago you could back under 40.5 points at 4-6 with Boylesports but, unsurprisingly, that was soon snapped up and is now 1-2 so the 5-6 available with Paddy Power about 39 or fewer points in the game is the next best thing.

You have to rewind to the 2006 final between Kerry and Cork to find an All-Ireland final that contained more than 40 points. The last 13 have been lower scoring and they have all been played in either September or early October.

The weather forecast suggests there will be showers at Croke Park on Saturday and, by throw-in, the temperature could be as low as four degrees. That could have an impact on scoring.

Mayo's style of football in 2020 has been described as 'heavy metal' by some pundits. They scored 5-20 in their semi-final trouncing of Tipperary, 1-16 against Roscommon and 2-15 in the win over Leitrim. That's all well and good, but you must remember they only scored 0-14 in the Connacht final victory over Galway.

They had to cut their coat to suit their cloth in that game and, for all the talk of a free-flowing, high-scoring shootout, this final may prove to be anything but.

James Horan has spoken all week about his side "having a go" and not having "any regrets", but he is a shrewd coach, tactically astute, and there is no way he is going to leave his full-back line as exposed as they were against Tipperary.

If he does, he must know they will be destroyed. They are sure to deploy some sort of a sweeper to protect a fragile full-back line. This game will not be 15 on 15.

The winners of the last six All-Ireland finals have scored an average of 18.16 points and, if either Dublin or Mayo reach that total here, it could be enough to secure victory.

The best bet on the match coupon is undoubtedly under 39.5 total points at 5-6, but the 8-1 BoyleSports are offering about 30 points or fewer is worth a small wager too.

Horan has to decide what to with David Clarke's kick-outs. Going short is riddled with risk, despite the fact they have scored 1-11 directly from short kick-outs in the championship.

A massive 4-40 have come from turnovers so expect serious aggression from Mayo. This will be Dublin's biggest battle of the championship.

Clarke may well kick longer than usual, trying to find areas Fenton can't reach, and they will pick and choose their moments to push right up on Stephen Cluxton's kick-outs.

It won't be gung-ho and it won't be foolish. There is too much at stake. This is an All-Ireland final and the fear of losing will play a big part in the performance of both sides.

Plenty of firms have priced up individual player totals and the one which appeals most is for exciting youngster Tommy Conroy not to score two points at 6-4 with Boylesports.

Conroy is a real talent and has been a star all season, but he hasn't faced a defence as tough and uncompromising as Dublin's and it could come as a shock to the system. He is going to be in for some special attention.

It is hard to envisage anything other than a Dublin win, probably by four or five, but expect the scoring to be lower than anticipated.

Key stat

Dublin and Mayo have met in the All-Ireland final three times in the last decade - 2013, 2016 and 2017 - and on each occasion there has only been a single point between the teams. Dublin have won all three.

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