All-Ireland final: Dublin v Kerry - preview, predictions & David Jennings' tips

Where to watch

Sky Sports Arena & RTE, 3.30pm Sunday

Best bets

Kerry +7
4pts 8-11 BoyleSports
Dublin to win by one to five points
2pts 2-1 Betfair, Paddy Power
Dublin to win by one to three points
1pt 5-1 bet365
Paul Geaney to score over 2.5 points
2pts 6-5 Paddy Power
Paul Geaney to score more than Paul Mannion
2pts 7-4 Paddy Power
Paul Geaney to receive a man-of-the-match nomination
1pt 6-1 Ladbrokes
First half to be higher-scoring
2pts 7-4 general
A red card to be shown
2pts 11-8 Betfair, Paddy Power
Over 1.5 black cards
1pt 6-4 BoyleSports

Match preview

Five of the last nine All-Ireland football finals have been won by a single point, and do not forget we needed a replay in 2016, so this year's decider could be much closer than the betting suggests and Kerry look terrific value to keep within a seven-point handicap at 8-11 with BoyleSports.

You have to rewind 12 years to 2007 to find the last All-Ireland final won by more than six points and, when you factor in the intense pressure on Dublin as they bid to become the first team to win five in a row, this game could take on a life of its own.

Tradition tells us that clashes between Dublin and Kerry are tight. There were three points between them when they met at a drenched Croke Park for the 2015 decider and Stephen Cluxton's last-gasp winner was all that separated the sides in 2011.

Their most recent championship clash was the epic semi-final in 2016 when Dublin swooped late to win by two points but Kerry led 2-8 to 0-9 at half-time and the Kingdom were fully deserving 1-18 to 2-14 winners when they met in the third round of the league in February.

Those who think Dublin will demolish Kerry argue that the Dubs' average winning margin in seven games on the way to the All-Ireland final is 15 points, but it was 14.8 en route to the 2017 final and they still only saw off Mayo by a single point.

All-Ireland finals are completely different to anything that precedes them and it would be foolish to think Dublin will not be nervous. They are on the cusp of immortality and trying to create history, just 70-odd minutes away from being recognised as the best team of all time.

They are red-hot 1-5 favourites with Paddy Power and all the talk in the build-up has been about how superior they are to Kerry. There will be jitters and I fully expect the champions to be more nervous than we have ever seen them before.

Kerry manager Peter Keane is unbeaten in 24 championship matches at the helm of the seniors and minors. His Kerry side have been a side-show in the build-up and seldom has a side entered an All-Ireland final with such little hype. But if you think they are just making up the numbers, you had better think again.

The Kingdom have the potential to hurt Dublin in a way no other side could. They have four fantastic forwards, possibly five if James O'Donoghue starts, and that is something the champions have not encountered in 2019.

Dublin's biggest liability is their full-back line, while Kerry's best asset is their full-forward line. That means all the ingredients are there for a fascinating showdown and a much tighter one than the odds suggest.

Expect Kerry to kick the ball at every opportunity. Their best chance of success is early, long, diagonal deliveries into their full-forward line and they need to attack at pace, not allowing time for Brian Howard and Niall Scully to cut off the danger areas.

Before they were hit with injuries to key players, Donegal looked the side best equipped to trouble Dublin but there was always a suspicion that Kerry would be dangerous if they managed to reach an All-Ireland final. Now that they are here it would be foolish to write them off.

Jack Barry did a terrific man-marking job on Brian Fenton on the last two occasions the sides met so expect him to start and repeat the feat. David Clifford has a distinct height advantage over Michael Darragh MacAuley so Shane Ryan should go long with most of his kick-outs and Kerry have the potential to come out on top in the midfield battle.

The best way to curb the influence of Jack McCaffrey is to get him tracking back towards his own goal so expect Stephen O'Brien to do just that. Paul Murphy is likely to take up Ciaran Kilkenny but can Michael Fitzsimons keep Paul Geaney quiet and would you have ultimate faith in Jonny Cooper coming out on top in his duel with David Clifford? That is where Kerry have a definite edge.

And Tommy Walsh could be the trump card off the bench as the best way to put doubts in Dublin minds is by launching high, diagonal deliveries into an imposing individual like Walsh.

Dublin are still by far the most likely winners but when you take everything into consideration, Kerry should comfortably keep within the seven-point handicap.

History can be created at Croke Park as Dublin should have enough experience and quality to claim their fifth All-Ireland title in a row but it could be by two or three points rather than the double-figure margin many are predicting.

Get on Paul Geaney to damage Dublin defence

With all the hype surrounding David Clifford, it seems the brilliance of Paul Geaney has gone unnoticed on the way to the All-Ireland final and the layers have underestimated the deadly Dingle attacker, who looks overpriced at 7-4 to score more than Dublin ace Paul Mannion.

Geaney has got 2-13 in the championship, an average of 3.2 points per game, which makes it strange to see him available at 6-5 with Paddy Power to score three or more points.

Mannion has got 0-22, which is only a slightly better average per game to Geaney, but he has not had to work as hard for his scores given that Dublin destroyed Kildare, Meath, Cork, Roscommon and Mayo on the way to the decider.

Geaney is a class act and looked to be back to his best in the semi-final, scoring three crucial points which helped see off Tyrone. The main stage at Croke Park will not bother him one bit and the presence of Clifford has taken the limelight off him and afforded him more space as defences focus on his younger sidekick.

Given the magnitude of the prize at stake, if Dublin do gallop into a clear lead entering the final quarter, expect them to shut up shop and hold onto what they have. What is the point in taking chances to win by ten, when you can comfortably win by four? Therefore the 7-4 available about the first half being higher-scoring makes plenty of appeal.

Kerry's best performance in the championship was their first-half scoring blitz against Mayo in the opening round of the Super 8s. They are best when blasting from the traps and a quick getaway is a must if they are to have any chance of success.

There has been much debate about Meath referee David Gough being given the whistle for the All-Ireland decider and the one thing you can be guaranteed is that he will stick to the rules rather than use common sense.

He issued a red card in a Meath club championship match last weekend and will not be afraid to do likewise if there is a sending-off offence in the final. Tempers will surely flare at some stage so odds of 11-8 about fewer than 30 players remaining on the pitch at full-time look big.

There could be plenty of black cards too as Gough will be wise to any off-the-ball incidents and he knows the criteria for a black card inside out, which is something that cannot be said for many of his colleagues.

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