Will the World Cup group stage bring a goal drought or a goal flood?

The opening game of a World Cup used to be slow and low-scoring. Between 1966 and 1994 there were four goalless draws, three 1-0 wins and a 1-1 draw. Eight games, none with more than two goals.

Then things changed. Between 1998 and 2018 there were no goalless draws, a single 1-0 win and a solitary 1-1 draw. The other four games all produced more than two goals. There were five last time, all for hosts Russia against Saudi Arabia. But that was not the highest-scoring opener during the period – that came in 2006 when hosts Germany beat Costa Rica 4-2.

Today the 2022 World Cup starts with hosts Qatar playing Ecuador.

What should we expect across the group stage? I think it makes sense to be guided by what happened in the last six tournaments, those between 1998 and 2018. In each of those tournaments there were 32 teams divided into eight groups of four, with the top two in each group qualifying for a round of 16 – the same arrangement as there will be in Qatar.

On average there were 2.5 goals per game. The proportion of contests featuring three goals or more was 48 per cent. There were variations from tournament to tournament, so the numbers in Qatar could be higher or lower, but I think the most reasonable projections are around 2.5 goals per game with 48 per cent of contests yielding three goals or more.

Scores tended to rise slightly throughout the group stage. There was then a big switch back the other way for the knockout stage, but more on that when we get there. One thing at a time.

There are three rounds of fixtures in a group stage. There were 2.4 goals per game in the first round, 2.6 in the second round and 2.6 in the third round. The proportion of games generating three goals or more was 46 per cent in the first round and 49 per cent across the second and third rounds.

A quarter of games were drawn, which means that three-quarters of games ended in a win for one side or the other. In Qatar, as in previous tournaments, the prospects of a positive result and a high score will vary from match to match depending on the anticipated difference in ability between the teams. This is how it works. The greater the anticipated difference in ability between two teams the less likely it becomes that both will score the same number of goals, and the more likely it becomes that the total number of goals will be high. Watch out.

The second half saw more action at previous tournaments

More comes later. In World Cup group games the distribution of goals has been different than in top-level European club competitions. More of the goals that were scored have come later.

Consider the last six World Cups, those between 1998 and 2018. The format was the same as it will be in Qatar. In group games 40 per cent of all goals were scored in the first half and 60 per cent in the second half.

In the Premier League over a comparable period – the 25 seasons from 1997-98 to 2021-22 – 45 per cent of all goals were scored in the first half and 55 per cent in the second half. There is a similar split in La Liga and Serie A.

The wider distribution in the World Cup was a continuation of what had happened in the three previous tournaments, 1986 to 1994. Then the format was different but the goals split almost identical: 41 per cent in the first half and 59 per cent in the second half.

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