Spain v Costa Rica predictions: La Roja should kick off with controlled win

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Spain v Costa Rica in World Cup Group E on Wednesday.

Where to watch

ITV, 4pm Wednesday

Best bet

Spain to win & under 3.5 goals
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Doubts remain over Spain's cutting edge up front but their defence kept clean sheets in three of their last four Nations League games and is unlikely to be troubled by underdogs Costa Rica.

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Match preview

A tough draw alongside Spain and Germany in Group E left Costa Rica as 1,000-1 outsiders of the 32 World Cup contenders and Los Ticos face a daunting opening test against La Roja.

Spain, world champions in 2010, were eliminated at the group stage in Brazil in 2014 and suffered a last-16 defeat on penalties to Russia four years ago but their performance at Euro 2020 means they are respected by bookmakers.

Luis Enrique's side blossomed as the tournament went on before they suffered more penalty pain, losing in a semi-final shootout to champions Italy after dominating the previous 120 minutes.

Spain had 70 per cent of possession against the Azzurri, racking up 16 attempts at goal to the Italians' seven, but Alvaro Morata's equaliser with ten minutes remaining in normal time was the only goal they mustered.

Doubts remain over the quality of the Spanish forward line, particularly compared with their strength in other departments. Manchester United goalkeeper David de Gea didn't even make a 55-man provisional squad while Rodri, a key part of Manchester City's recent success, is struggling to break into a midfield featuring Barcelona veteran Sergio Busquets and brilliant youngsters Gavi and Pedri.

Spain are well stocked when it comes to wide attacking players, with Athletic Bilbao's Nico Williams enhancing his claims with a fine goal in last week's 3-1 friendly win over Jordan.

But La Roja rarely hammer opponents – their last seven competitive wins were by 1-0, 2-0, 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-1 and 2-0 scorelines, and five of their six games at Euro 2020 rewarded backers of the 90-minute draw.

Clearly, Costa Rica are far weaker than Spain's 2022-23 Nations League opponents Portugal, Switzerland and the Czech Republic but they still have ace Paris St-Germain goalkeeper Keylor Navas as their last line of defence and backing Spain to win and under 3.5 goals could be the best bet.

Los Ticos famously topped a group containing England, Italy and Uruguay at the 2014 World Cup, going on to reach the quarter-finals, but a shallow talent pool means they are still reliant on the heroes of eight years ago.

Nine members of the squad have at least 70 international caps and it is hard to see how veteran midfielders Bryan Ruiz and Celso Borges will compete with the speed, energy and technical ability of Gavi and Pedri.

Los Ticos conceded only eight goals in their last 15 internationals but their clash with Spain is a significant step up in class and they may struggle to land a blow.

Key stat

Six of Spain's last seven competitive wins have been by a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline.

Team news

Spain
Left-back Jose Gaya has been replaced in the squad by Barcelona's Alex Balde.

Costa Rica
Los Ticos have no reported injury concerns so veterans Bryan Ruiz and Celso Borges are set to start.

Probable teams

Spain (4-3-3) Simon; Carvajal, Laporte, P Torres, Alba; Gavi, Busquets, Pedri; F Torres, Morata, Sarabia

Costa Rica (4-3-3) Navas; Martinez, Calvo, Duarte, Oviedo; Tejeda, Torres, Ruiz; Borges, Contreras, Campbell

Inside info

Spain

Top scorer in probable team Alvaro Morata
Star player Pedri
Penalty taker Alvaro Morata
Assist ace Jordi Alba
Set-piece aerial threat Aymeric Laporte
Card magnet Dani Carvajal

Costa Rica

Top scorer in probable team Bryan Ruiz
Star player Keylor Navas
Penalty taker Celso Borges
Assist ace Joel Campbell
Set-piece aerial threat Oscar Duarte
Card magnet Celso Borges

Spain v Costa Rica Bet Builder

Spain to win
La Roja's classy midfielders should control the game and set up a comfortable opening win
Under 3.5 goals
Costa Rica lack the firepower to trouble the Spain defence but the favourites are not the most ruthless in front of goal
Jordi Alba to register an assist
Given the weakness of the opposition, the marauding Spain left-back should have licence to get forward and create chances

Price guide 15-2 with Hills