Senegal v Netherlands predictions: Dutch should grind out opening win in Group A

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Senegal v Netherlands in World Cup Group A on Monday.

Where to watch

ITV, 4pm Monday

Best bet

Netherlands to win & under 3.5 goals
3pts 21-20 BoyleSports, Coral

The Netherlands have enjoyed an excellent build-up but Memphis Depay's absence is a blow and they are unlikely to cut loose against a Senegal side who conceded only two goals at seven matches during this year's Africa Cup of Nations triumph.

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Match preview

Senegal started 2022 by winning the Africa Cup of Nations for the first time in their history but the Lions of Teranga are 6-1 outsiders to beat the Netherlands in their World Cup Group A opener.

When the group-stage draw was made in April this fixture looked a far more competitive heat. However, the Dutch have enhanced their reputation with a fine run of form under legendary coach Louis van Gaal and Senegal's star man Sadio Mane has been ruled out of the tournament due to a leg injury.

Mane converted the decisive penalty in the Afcon final shootout against Egypt and repeated the feat against the Pharaohs in a tense two-legged World Cup qualifying playoff in March.

He was named in Aliou Cisse's squad despite suffering an injury while playing for Bayern Munich this month but has since had surgery which ended any hopes he might be able to play a part in the tournament.

Even with Mane in the team, Senegal are far from prolific goalscorers and his absence leaves them short of convincing attacking options.

The Netherlands are also missing their best forward, Memphis Depay, for the opening fixture although the Barcelona man is expected to be fit for the second group game against Ecuador.

That leaves former Tottenham forwards Vincent Janssen and Steven Bergwijn as Van Gaal's likely front two, although highly-rated PSV forward Cody Gakpo, the leading goalscorer in the Eredivisie, is another option for the Oranje.

While Depay's absence is a setback, the Netherlands go into the tournament in good spirits, unbeaten in 15 matches since their last-16 exit against the Czech Republic at Euro 2020.

They won five of this season's six Nations League games, doing the double over neighbours Belgium, and also took maximum points from group fixtures against Ukraine, Austria and North Macedonia at the Euros.

Virgil van Dijk, who missed that tournament through injury, is fit to anchor the back three although marauding wing-back Denzel Dumfries is expected to miss the Senegal clash.

The Lions of Teranga still have a solid spine to their first 11 with Edouard Mendy in goal, his Chelsea teammate Kalidou Koulibaly at centre-back, and a midfield packed with Premier League and international experience.

The Dutch are less dynamic without Depay and Dumfries in their ranks but they should be backed to claim a narrow win over a Senegal side whose three Afcon group matches produced just one goal – a 97th-minute penalty from the sadly absent Mane.

Key stat

The Netherlands have won 11 of their last 13 competitive matches.

Team news

Senegal
Sadio Mane's leg injury has ruled him out of the tournament so Monaco's Krepin Diatta could come into the front three.

Netherlands
Uncapped Heerenveen goalkeeper Andries Noppert is expected to start but Barcelona forward Memphis Depay is out. Inter wing-back Denzel Dumfries and Atalanta midfielder Marten de Roon are unlikely to feature on matchday one.

Probable teams

Senegal (4-3-3) E Mendy; Sabaly, Cisse, Koulibaly, Ballo-Toure; Kouyate, N Mendy, I Gueye; I Sarr, Dia, Diatta

Netherlands (3-4-1-2) Noppert; Timber, Van Dijk, Ake; Frimpong, F de Jong, Koopmeiners, Blind; Klaassen; Janssen, Bergwijn

Inside info

Senegal

Top scorer in probable team Ismaila Sarr
Star player Kalidou Koulibaly
Penalty taker Ismaila Sarr
Assist ace Ismaila Sarr
Set-piece aerial threat Kalidou Koulibaly
Card magnet Nampalys Mendy

Netherlands

Top scorer in probable team Davy Klaassen
Star player Virgil van Dijk
Penalty taker Vincent Janssen
Assist ace Davy Klaassen
Set-piece aerial threat Virgil van Dijk
Card magnet Daley Blind