Saudi Arabia v Mexico predictions: Saudis have nothing to fear from Mexico

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Saudi Arabia v Mexico in World Cup Group C on Wednesday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 7pm Wednesday

Best bet

Saudi Arabia or draw double chance
1pt 6-5 Hills

The Saudis have competed well in the tournament and can give themselves a chance of last-16 progression by taking at least a point against a toothless Mexico side.

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Match preview

Habitual qualifiers Mexico are going to struggle to make the last 16 this time and make precious little appeal at odds-on against a feisty Saudi Arabia side.

Thirty-eight places separate El Tri from the Saudis in Fifa's world rankings but as we've seen several times during this tournament, that particular league table doesn't count for an awful lot.

And Mexico, even based on just two games, have underwhelmed as well as anyone.

Herve Renard's Saudis have already defied the rankings and the odds once by upsetting Argentina and on the evidence of the first week's graft from Group C there is no way on earth that Mexico are the 13th best side on the planet.

The Mexicans are one of only three countries yet to find the net in Qatar so need to score a goal before they can even begin to contemplate making it through the group stage at an eighth successive World Cup.

A one-goal win would be enough for Mexico if either Poland beat Argentina or Argentina drub the Poles, so it's not quite mission impossible.

But where's that goal going to come from? Alexis Vega has been lively, Raul Jimenez clearly isn't fully fit, Hirving Lozano has been poor. And there's precious little creativity coming from midfield.

Coach Gerardo Martino is getting it in the neck from millions of disgruntled Mexicans so this is almost certainly his last hurrah. But that's no reason to presume they will go out with a bang.

Over the first two matches – against the same two opponents – Mexico have fired off three fewer shots than the Saudis and managed two fewer on target.

And Saudi Arabia have been bright, surprisingly bright. They aren't afraid to play dirty – they are on eight yellows and counting – and they have ridden their luck, certainly in the first half against Argentina.

But had Poland keeper Wojciech Szczesny not had a blinder against the Saudis last time out, they could be on four points right now rather than three.

Of course Saudi Arabia are under pressure themselves, pressure few would have foreseen heading into the tournament. They are acutely aware that they are one win away from a place in round two and even a draw might be enough.

That changes the dynamics, although Renard is probably the right man to drum common sense into this group and they can defy the odds here.

They've done it once and they don't look in any way inferior to a shot-shy Mexico, who look like a beaten group.

Key stat

Mexico have won only two of their last eight matches and failed to score more than one goal in 13 of their last 18.

Team news

Saudi Arabia
Holding midfielder Abdullah Al-Malki is suspended. Defender Yassir Al-Shahrani remains sidelines after his horror injury against Argentina

Mexico
Skipper Andres Guardado (thigh) is likely to miss out.

Probable teams

Saudi Arabia (4-5-1) Mohammed Al-Owais; Saud Abdulhamid, Abdulelah Al-Amri, Ali Al-Bulayhi, Mohammed Al-Burayk; Feras Al-Brikan, Salem Al-Dawsari, Abdullah Otayf, Sami Al-Naji, Mohamed Kanno; Saleh Al-Shehri.

Mexico (4-3-3) Guillermo Ochoa; Jorge Sanchez, Cesar Montes, Hector Moreno, Jesus Gallardo; Erick Gutierrez, Edson Alvarez, Luis Chavez; Rogerio Funes Mori, Raul Jimenez, Alexis Vega.

Inside info

Saudi Arabia

Top scorer in probable team Saleh Al-Shehri
Star player Salem Al-Dawsari
Penalty taker Mohammed Al-Burayk
Assist ace Feras Al-Brikan
Set-piece aerial threat Abdulelah Al-Amri
Card magnet Abdulelah Al-Amri

Mexico

Top scorer in probable team Raul Jimenez
Star player Raul Jimenez
Penalty taker Raul Jimenez
Assist ace Alexis Vega
Set-piece aerial threat Cesar Montes
Card magnet Hector Moreno

Saudi Arabia v Mexico Bet Builder

Over 2.5 Saudi cards
The feisty Saudis have got something to play for and with eight cards so far, they won't be afraid of getting stuck in.

Under 3.5 goals
Each of Saudi Arabia's last 21 matches has produced no more than three goals and this shouldn't be any different given the stakes.

Under 13.5 Mexico shots
Yes, they need to score but so far they have mustered 11 and four shots in their two matches.

Price guide 17-2