Poland v Saudi Arabia predictions: Renard's heroes may come up short in game two

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Poland v Saudi Arabia in World Cup Group C on Saturday.

Where to watch

ITV, 1pm Saturday

Best bet

Poland to win to nil
1pt 9-5 Betfred

Saudi Arabia's amazing win against Argentina came at a cost and the injury-hit underdogs may struggle to land a blow on Poland's defence in a low-scoring encounter.

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Match preview

Saudi Arabia's 2-1 victory over Argentina on Tuesday was one of the biggest shocks in World Cup finals history and the Group C underdogs are 4-1 to follow up with a win over Poland.

The Saudis, 22-1 shots before kick-off against Argentina, were matched at 999-1 in-play on Betfair after Lionel Messi's early penalty for the Albiceleste, who were unbeaten in 36 internationals and had been eye-catching market movers in the build-up to the tournament.

Messi and his teammates were rocked by two goals in the first eight minutes of the second half as the Saudis equalised through striker Saleh Al-Shehri before Salem Al-Dawsari scored a brilliant winner.

Herve Renard's men managed to keep out Argentina for the rest of the second half, including nearly 14 minutes of added time, but bookmakers clearly believe that heroic rearguard effort will have taken its toll on the Saudis.

Defender Yasser Al-Shahrani suffered a broken jaw in a collision with his own goalkeeper and midfielder Salman Al-Faraj, who came off at the end of the first half, is also expected to miss the game against Poland.

Al-Shahrani and Al-Faraj are two of the three most experienced players in the squad, with 72 and 70 international caps, and their absences, along with the physical and mental energy expended in Saudi Arabia's victory over Argentina, should boost Poland's chances.

The layers were struggling to split Poland and Mexico in the pre-tournament Group C qualification betting and that assessment was franked by their goalless draw on matchday one.

The key moment came just before the hour-mark when Polish star Robert Lewandowski saw his penalty saved by veteran Mexico goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa, extending the striker's wait for a first World Cup finals goal.

Lewandowski's spot-kick was one of only two shots on target for the Poles, although Mexico tested Wojciech Szczesny only four times in the match, and that lack of attacking fluency would be a concern for backers of Poland at odds-on to beat the Saudis.

Poland's last two results before the World Cup were a 1-0 friendly win over Chile and a Nations League victory away to Wales by the same scoreline so it may be worth backing them to win to nil.

Lewandowski, with 18 goals in 19 games for Barcelona this term, provides them with a world-class cutting edge up front and, before their astonishing victory over Argentina, Saudi Arabia had scored just seven times in 14 games in 2022, most of which were against modest opposition.

Key stat

Poland's last five internationals have produced only five goals.

Team news

Poland
The Poles have no fresh injury concerns but striker Arkadiusz Milik is pushing for a start alongside Robert Lewandowski.

Saudi Arabia
Defender Yasser Al-Shahrani is out after suffering a broken jaw against Argentina. Salman Al-Faraj also came off in that game and is unlikely to feature.

Probable teams

Poland (4-1-4-1) Szczesny; Cash, Glik, Kiwior, Bereszynski; Krychowiak; Kaminski, Zielinski, Szymanski, Zalewski; Lewandowski

Saudi Arabia (4-1-4-1) Al-Owais; Abdulhamid, Tambakti, Al-Bulaihi, Al-Breik; Al-Malki; Al-Buraikan, Al-Abid, Kanno, S Al-Dawsari; Al-Shehri

Inside info

Poland

Top scorer in probable team Robert Lewandowski
Star player Robert Lewandowski
Penalty taker Robert Lewandowski
Assist ace Piotr Zielinski
Set-piece aerial threat Kamil Glik
Card magnet Grzegorz Krychowiak

Saudi Arabia

Top scorer in probable team Salem Al-Dawsari
Star player Salem Al-Dawsari
Penalty taker Salem Al-Dawsari
Assist ace Salem Al-Dawsari
Set-piece aerial threat Mohammed Kanno
Card magnet Abdulelah Al-Malki

Poland v Saudi Arabia Bet Builder

Draw-Poland double result
The Saudis' efforts against Argentina could catch up with them in the second half
Robert Lewandowski to be first goalscorer
Despite a penalty miss against Mexico, the striker is by far the biggest goal threat
Under 2.5 goals
Poland's last five games have all featured two goals or fewer

Price guide 12-1 with Hills