Mexico v Poland predictions: El Tri can count on experience in Doha

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Mexico v Poland in World Cup Group C on Tuesday.

Where to watch

BBC One, 4pm Tuesday

Best bet

Mexico draw no bet
1pt 5-6 BoyleSports, Ladbrokes

This could be the battle for second spot in Group C and Mexico are worth chancing to come out on top against Poland in Doha given their superior tournament pedigree and greater defensive resolve.

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Match preview

With Argentina expected to progress from Group C as winners and Saudi Arabia unlikely to cause much of a stir, Mexico and Poland's encounter at Stadium 974 in Doha is already being labelled as a battle for second spot and it is hard to argue with that logic.

At first glance, the teams look tough to separate with only 13 places between them in the Fifa world rankings but upon closer inspection, Mexico look a value selection.

Gerardo Martino has not had the best time of it in the Mexico hotseat since taking charge in January 2019, claiming he often feels like "public enemy number one".

The team suffered final defeats to the USA in both the Concacaf Gold Cup and Nations League last year, drawing plenty of criticism as a result, and finishing below Canada in World Cup qualifying was not ideal.

But more than 60,000 Mexico fans are expected to follow the team to Qatar and El Tri's tournament pedigree cannot be ignored.

They have made it out of their World Cup group in each of the last seven tournaments and they have won their opening match in five of the last six World Cups.

Their squad is loaded with key tournament experience with goalkeeper Guillermo Ochoa and midfielder Andres Guardado, both likely starters, are set to play in their fifth World Cup.

Raul Jimenez's lack of fitness and form coming into the tournament is concerning but Hirving Lozano and Alexis Vega can both be explosive on their day and offer an attacking buzz to a team mainly renowned for being solid at the back.

For Poland, it will be all about Robert Lewandowski at this tournament but the Barcelona forward has often struggled to carry his club form into internationals and has never scored at a World Cup.

The Poles have crashed out at the group stage in each of their last two major tournaments - the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2020 - and even playing with a back three, they look too defensively porous.

In their most recent Nations League campaign, they conceded an average of two goals per game in a section featuring the Netherlands, Belgium and Wales and their inexperience could show in this crucial clash.

Mexico look the better value but punters may want to back them with the insurance of a draw-no-bet selection, whereby stakes are returned if the match finishes all square.

Key stat

Mexico have won their opening match in five of the last six World Cups.

Team news

Mexico
Raul Jimenez came off the bench in Mexico's warm-up friendly with Sweden on Wednesday but is unlikely to be fit enough to start against Poland. Jesus Corona has been ruled out of the tournament.

Poland
The Poles have no new team news to report and will be pinning their hopes on star striker Robert Lewandowski.

Probable teams

Mexico (4-3-3) Ochoa; Sanchez, Montes, Moreno, Gallardo; Herrera, E Alvarez, Guardado; Vega, Martin, Lozano.

Poland (3-4-1-2) Szczesny; Bednarek, Glik, Kiwior; Frankowski, Krychowiak, Zurkowski, Zalewski; Zielinski; Lewandowski, Milik.

Inside info

Mexico

Top scorer in probable team Andres Guardado
Star player Hirving Lozano
Penalty taker Henry Martin
Assist ace Alexis Vega
Set-piece aerial threat Cesar Montes
Card magnet Edson Alvarez

Poland

Top scorer in probable team Robert Lewandowski
Star player Robert Lewandowski
Penalty taker Robert Lewandowski
Assist ace Piotr Zielinski
Set-piece aerial threat Kamil Glik
Card magnet Grzegorz Krychowiak

Mexico v Poland Bet Builder

Mexico to win
The added experience and tournament pedigree in Mexico's squad should see them over the line against a defensively porous Poland.
Over 2.5 goals
With so much riding on this game, it could well be an open affair and there is enough attacking talent on display to warrant backing over 2.5 goals.
Alexis Vega to score
Raul Jimenez's lack of form and fitness means Mexico will need another forward to step up to the plate in Qatar and Alexis Vega has scored in each of their last three matches, so could get on the scoresheet.

Price guide 14-1 with bet365

Match information

Stadium Stadium 974, Doha
Fifa rankings Mexico 13, Poland 26
Weather Clear, 24C

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