Keep the Tipp-Ex handy because things are never straightforward at a World Cup

Everything seems so obvious at this stage of a World Cup, doesn't it?

It's deceptively easy to pencil in predictions on your World Cup wallchart, narrowing down the field until you're left with the tournament winners as well as the runners-up, hopefully at a juicy each-way price.

It's simple: if this lot win their group they'll get these fellas in the last 16. Then it's the other mob in the quarter-finals, by which time the draw will have opened up because these lads are going to be knocked out by those plucky underdogs over there.

The reality, of course, is that the World Cup group stage is a gloriously unpredictable mess in which an injury-time own goal on matchday three can spark a frenzy of crossings-out and Tipp-Ex spillages among overhasty wallchart enthusiasts.

Group B at the 2018 World Cup provided a good example of the fine margins of tournament football. The six group games involving Spain, Portugal, Iran and Morocco yielded three draws and three 1-0 wins with La Roja topping the section thanks to their injury-time equaliser against Morocco and Iran's 93rd-minute leveller against Portugal on matchday three.

Argentina needed an 86th-minute volley from defender Marcos Rojo to deny Nigeria second spot in Group D while holders Germany finished bottom of Group F behind Sweden, Mexico and South Korea.

And spare a thought for backers of Senegal to qualify from Group H. The Lions of Teranga finished with exactly the same record as second-placed Japan – one win, one draw, one defeat, four goals scored and four conceded – but were eliminated because they had received two more yellow cards than their section rivals.

With that lengthy caveat in place, my group-winners acca features the Netherlands (Group A), England (Group B), Argentina (Group C) and, bumping up the price to nearly 9-1, Denmark to upset Group D favourites France.

Now where's that permanent marker? I've got a wallchart to fill in ...

CLICK HERE FOR YOUR CHANCE TO WIN A 65" TV

Sign up to emails from Racing Post Sport and get all the latest news and tips

Today's top sports betting stories

Follow us on Twitter @racingpostsport