Japan v Spain predictions: Morata can star for La Roja

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Japan v Spain in World Cup Group E on Thursday.

Where to watch

ITV1, 7pm

Best bet

Alvaro Morata to score
1pt 11-10 BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes

Spain striker Alvaro Morata has scored after coming off the bench in both of his team's World Cup group games and, in line for a start against Japan, he looks a decent bet to score at any time.

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Match preview

Japan will be kicking themselves after their 1-0 defeat to Costa Rica in Group E at the World Cup but the Blue Samurai are still in contention to make the last 16 heading into their final group fixture against Spain.

Hajime Moriyasu's men were in a brilliant position to make it out of Group E after stunning Germany 2-1 in their opener at the Khalifa International Stadium.

But they are almost back to square one after the loss Costa Rica on matchday two which blew the group open.

Japan sit in second spot in the section going into their final fixture, knowing a draw could well be enough, but only a win over Spain would guarantee progress to the knockout stage.

And a win against La Roja will not come easily.

Spain raised eyebrows with a 7-0 dismantling of Costa Rica in their opener, impressing with their control of that game and their precision in the final third.

But they are not yet through to the round of 16, having been held to a 1-1 draw by Germany last time out, when Niclas Fullkrug's late thumping strike cancelled out Alvaro Morata's opener.

Luis Enrique should, however, not be particularly concerned by that performance - Germany needed to throw everything they had at that game and a draw was probably a fair result.

And over the two games it is fair to say Spain have looked one of the strongest teams at the tournament with Rodri comfortable alongside Manchester City team-mate Aymeric Laporte at the back and Pedri as impressive as ever in midfield.

Japan sought success when pressing Germany high up the pitch in their opening match, forcing errors and misplaced passes.

But the same game plan will not work against the Spanish, who monopolise possession more than any other side in the tournament.

That element of control, coupled with the fact that Japan's key attacking players such as Daichi Kamada and Junya Ito have not yet got going, points to a Spain win.

But there is little value in backing Enrique's side at around 4-11 so the better bet could be Morata to score.

Morata has made an impact off the bench in his team's first two games, scoring against Costa Rica and Germany, and that should have done the world of good for a player who has previously lacked confidence in a Spain shirt.

His ability to get in behind is key for Spain and he looks likely to start this time so can cause even more problems for the Japanese.

Key stat

Alvaro Morata has scored in Spain's last three competitive matches.

Team news

Japan
Hiroki Sakai remains a doubt while Wataru Endo has also picked up a knock and is expected to miss out. Takuma Asano could start up top for the Blue Samurai.

Spain
Alvaro Morata looks likely to start in place of Marco Asensio through the middle of Spain's attack. Gavi is expected to be involved despite missing training on Monday with a minor knock.

Probable teams

Japan (4-2-3-1) Gonda; Yamane, Itakura, Yoshida, Nagatomo; Tanaka, Morita; Doan, Kamada, Soma; Asano.

Spain (4-3-3) Simon; Carvajal, Rodri, Laporte, Alba; Gavi, Busquets, Pedri; F Torres, Morata, Olmo.

Inside info

Japan

Top scorer in probable team Maya Yoshida
Star player Daichi Kamada
Penalty taker Daichi Kamada
Assist ace Daichi Kamada
Set-piece aerial threat Maya Yoshida
Card magnet Yuto Nagatomo

Spain

Top scorer in probable team Alvaro Morata
Star player Pedri
Penalty taker Alvaro Morata
Assist ace Jordi Alba
Set-piece aerial threat Aymeric Laporte
Card magnet Sergio Busquets

Japan v Spain Bet Builder

Spain to win
Spain destroyed Costa Rica in their opener and were largely in control of their 1-1 draw with Germany last time out, so should be fancied to see off Japan.

Alvaro Morata to score
Alvaro Morata is growing in confidence, bagging goals in each of Spain's two World Cup group games, and he can find the net again.

Under three goals
Spain have shipped only once in their first two games at the World Cup and their resolute rearguard can keep the score down in this crunch Group E encounter.

Price guide 7-1 with bet365

Match information

Stadium Khalifa International Stadium, Al Rayyan
Fifa rankings Japan 24, Spain 7
Weather Sunny, 24C.

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