Ireland v Azerbaijan predictions: Set pieces hold key for Irish in must-win game

Free football tips, best bets and analysis for Ireland v Azerbaijan in 2022 World Cup qualifying on Saturday.

Where to watch

Sky Sports Football, 5pm Saturday

Best bet

Shane Duffy to score first
1pt each-way 16-1 bet365

Team news

Ireland
Defenders Dara O'Shea and Nathan Collins are out so Andrew Omobamidele could start. Callum Robinson and Alan Browne have been added to the squad after missing the trip to Portugal.

Azerbaijan
Mahir Emreli, Anton Krivotsyuk and Namiq Alasgarov are pushing for starts after coming on at half-time against Luxembourg.

Match preview

Two late goals from Cristiano Ronaldo denied 20-1 shots Ireland a famous victory over Portugal in Faro on Wednesday but now Stephen Kenny's men must shoulder the burden of expectation.

They are short-priced favourites to kickstart their 2022 World Cup qualifying campaign with a home victory over Azerbaijan who, like Ireland, have lost three out of three in Group A.

Backers of the Irish in March's 1-0 home defeat to Luxembourg may well be reluctant to get stuck in at cramped odds again although Kenny's side will have taken great heart from their efforts against Portugal.

After young goalkeeper Gavin Bazunu had saved an early penalty from Ronaldo, John Egan gave the underdogs the lead with a header from a corner on the stroke of half-time.

Despite predictably sustained pressure from their star-studded hosts, Ireland stood firm until Ronaldo turned the game around at the death with headers in the 89th and 96 minutes.

Kenny's squad are probably better equipped for that kind of situation, digging in and defending in numbers, than for taking the initiative in a game they need to win.

They scored just once in the manager's first eight matches in charge but have shown more of a threat in 2021, losing 3-2 in Serbia before the Luxembourg loss, and putting four past Andorra in a June friendly.

Brighton striker Aaron Connolly had four attempts on goal against Portugal, none of them on target, and is worth considering at 5-1 to score first against an Azerbaijan side who were 2-0 down inside half an hour against Luxembourg on Wednesday.

However, as Egan showed in Faro, set pieces remain a key part of Ireland's attacking plans and the recalled Shane Duffy looks a decent each-way bet to open the scoring.

Back at Brighton after a tough season with Celtic, the centre-back scored first in last month's 2-0 Premier League win over Watford. He also notched the first goal of the Kenny era in a Nations League draw with Bulgaria (his fourth at international level) and scored in his first two league appearances for Celtic this time last year.

Key stat

Ireland's last five home matches have produced only four goals.

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